Predicting Failure on the Sex Offense Registry: An Examination of Static and Dynamic Factors

Abstract There is considerable research on the efficacy of sex offense registries, but less is known about individual compliance with registration. Recent research and subsequent policy have highlighted the importance of understanding technical violations as a hidden driver of mass incarceration, and there is emerging evidence that suggests that agency violation practices vary widely. We analyzed administrative data from a large sample of individuals on the sex offense registry in Missouri to identify the factors associated with risk for noncompliance, including a technical violation and reincarceration. Both stable and dynamic factors contribute to our understanding of compliance and incarceration. Findings also suggest that living in a county with few registrants contributes to lowered odds of noncompliance. Alternatively, high caseloads contribute to greater odds of incarceration only. More generally, we find a sizeable portion of jurisdictional variation remains for both noncompliance and incarceration, a finding that suggests different enforcement practices across place.