Forest Clearing Dynamics and Its Relation to Remotely Sensed Carbon Density and Plant Species Diversity in the Puuc Biocultural State Reserve, Mexico

The Puuc Biocultural State Reserve (PBSR) is a unique model for tropical dry forest conservation in Mexico. Preserving forest biodiversity and carbon within the PBSR depends on maintaining low-impact productive activities coordinated by multiple communal and private landowners. In this study, we used state-of-the-art remote sensing data to investigate past spatial patterns in forest clearing dynamics and their relation to forest carbon density and forest plant species richness and diversity in the context of the forest conservation goals of the PBSR. We used a Landsat-based continuous change detection product for the 2000–2021 period and compared it to carbon density and tree species richness models generated from ALOS-2 PALSAR 2 imagery and national scale forest inventory data. The estimated error-adjusted area of detected annual forest clearings from the year 2000 until the year 2021 was 230,511 ha in total (±19,979 ha). The analysis of annual forest clearing frequency and area suggests that although forest clearing was significantly more intensive outside of the PBSR than within the PBSR during the entire 2000–2021 period, there is no evidence suggesting that the frequency and magnitude of forest clearing changed over the years after the creation of the PBSR in 2011. However, an emergent hotspot analysis shows that high spatiotemporal clustering of forest clearing events (hotspots) during the 2012–2021 period was less common than prior to 2011, and these more recent hotspots have been confined to areas outside the PBSR. After comparing forest clearing events to carbon density and tree species richness models, the results show that landowners outside the PBSR often clear forests with lower carbon density and species diversity than those inside the PBSR. This suggests that, compared to landowners outside the PBSR, landowners within the PBSR might be practicing longer fallow periods allowing forests to attain higher carbon density and tree species richness and hence better soil nutrient recovery after land abandonment. In conclusion, our results show that the PBSR effectively acted as a stabilizing forest management scheme during the 2012–2021 period, minimizing the impact of productive activities by lowering the frequency of forest clearing events and preserving late secondary forests within the PBSR. We recommend continuing efforts to provide alternative optimal field data collection strategies and modeling techniques to spatially predict key tropical forest attributes. Combining these models with continuous change detection datasets will allow for underlying ecological processes to be revealed and the generation of information better adapted to forest governance scales.