财政整顿对经济增长的潜在影响

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
H. Kuncoro
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的-本文旨在分析印尼财政整顿实施的可行性。需要研究的主要问题是,财政整顿是否会恶化经济增长。方法-本研究使用各种概率模型来评估财政调整的成功程度。Probit和logit模型被用作初步估计。采用二元极值模型和Tobit模型进行鲁棒性检验。结果-结果表明,政府收入的规模小于政府支出的规模。他们似乎认为,增加政府收入(比如税收)比减少支出危害更小,这在经验上否定了凯恩斯主义经济学家所赞同的观点。启示:研究结果强调,印尼财政当局应立即改革经济、监管和制度环境,以实施财政紧缩政策。为了实现财政健康和促进经济增长,迫切需要这些改革。原创性——本文对发展中国家财政政策的文献研究有贡献。与其他实证研究不同,本研究将实际产出与潜在产出进行比较,而不是将过去的实际产出进行比较,以评估财政整顿的成功程度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The potential growth impact of fiscal consolidations
Purpose - This paper aims at analyzing the feasibility of fiscal consolidation implementation in the case of Indonesia. The main question to be investigated is whether fiscal consolidation will deteriorate economic growth or not. Methods -  This research uses various probabilistic models to assess the successfulness of fiscal adjustments. Probit and logit models are used as a preliminary estimate. The robustness checks are conducted by binary extreme value and Tobit models. Findings -  The results indicate that the magnitude of government revenue is less than that of government spending. They seem that increasing government revenue (taxes, for instance) is less harmful compared to reducing expenditures, which denies empirically what Keynesian economists approve of. Implication -  The results highlight that Indonesia’s fiscal authority should immediately reform the economic, regulatory, and institutional environments in adopting fiscal austerity policies. The reforms are strongly required to realize fiscal health as well as to promote economic growth. Originality -  This paper contributes the literature on fiscal policy in developing countries. Unlike other empirical studies, this research compares the actual output over the potential output, instead of the past actual output, to evaluate the successfulness of fiscal consolidations.
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来源期刊
自引率
20.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
12 weeks
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