COVID-19的宏观经济影响与普遍转移支付计划:以韩国为例

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI:10.1080/1226508X.2022.2143703

Kwangyong Park

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中，我们基于包含劳动摩擦、多种类型工作和家庭的宏观sir模型，分析了2019冠状病毒病对韩国的影响及其应对政策。由于模型和控制流行病学和宏观经济发展之间相互作用的参数存在很大的不确定性，我们在模拟模型时依赖于先前的预测分析。我们发现，该模型成功地预测了2020年下半年确诊病例数量的内生上升，以及经济活动的急剧下降，随后由政府转移支付计划引起的暂时复苏。研究还表明，低收入家庭受疫情影响更大，因为他们的劳动收入损失更大。结果表明，全民转移支付的消费乘数约为0.09。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 and Universal Transfer Programs: The Case of Korea

ABSTRACT In this paper, we analyse the impacts of COVID-19 and the policy response to it in Korea based on a version of a Macro-SIR model with labour friction, and with multiple types of jobs and households. Due to substantial uncertainty in the model and parameters that govern the interaction between epidemiological and macroeconomic developments, we rely on a prior predictive analysis when simulating the model. We find that the model successfully predicts an endogenous rise in the number of confirmed cases in the second half of 2020, and a sharp decline in economic activity followed by a temporary recovery caused by the government transfer program. It also turns out that low-wealth households are more damaged from the pandemic due to larger losses in terms of labour income. In addition, it is shown that the consumption multiplier of the universal transfer program is around 0.09.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.