跨期替代弹性、风险和时间偏好的联合诱导

Luciano I. de Castro, A. Galvao, Gabriel Montes-Rojas, Jose Olmo
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引用次数: 1

摘要

动态模型中跨期替代弹性(EIS)、贴现因子和风险态度参数的推导对经济、金融和公共政策具有重要意义。本文提出了一种利用实验数据共同推导和估计这三个参数的方法。我们采用了一种基于动态分位数偏好的新模型,其中个人最大化了未来分位数效用流。这些偏好是简单的、动态一致的和单调的。在分位数模型中,风险态度由收益分布的分位数捕获,而EIS和折现因子与描述个体跨期行为的效用函数相关,因此允许风险、EIS和折现因子之间完全可分离。感兴趣参数的估计使用结构极大似然法。个人的风险厌恶估计低于中位数。贴现因子比文献中报道的估计略小,EIS略大于1,这表明随着时间的推移,效用是凹的。弹性估计值与现有使用观察分类数据的研究报告形成对比,这些研究通常发现弹性小于1。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Joint-Elicitation of Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution, Risk and Time Preferences
The elicitation of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS), discount factor and risk attitude parameters in dynamic models is of central importance to economics, finance and public policy. This paper suggests an alternative method to jointly elicit and estimate these three parameters using experimental data. We employ a new model based on dynamic quantile preferences, where individuals maximize the stream of future ‐quantile utilities, for . These preferences are simple, dynamically consistent and monotonic. In the quantile model, the risk attitude is captured by the quantile of the payoff distribution, while the EIS and the discount factor are related to the utility function describing individual's intertemporal behaviour, hence allowing for complete separability between risk, EIS and discount factor. The estimation of the parameters of interest uses a structural maximum likelihood method. Individual's risk aversion is estimated below the median. The discount factor is marginally smaller than estimates reported in the literature, and the EIS is slightly larger than one, which suggests that utility over time is concave. The estimates for the elasticity contrast with those reported by the existing studies using observational disaggregated data, which in general find an elasticity smaller than one.
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