{"title":"模糊状态动态、学习和内生长期风险","authors":"Hongseok Choi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3399366","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers learning about unobservable state variables when their dynamics are ambiguous. Ambiguity in dynamics, differently from that in a parameter, is never fully resolved; and, since data are to be filtered through the state equation, learning about the state becomes more difficult, permanently. This endogenously amplifies the long-run risk in estimation. An application to the long-run risks model shows that some of the large long-run risk (and high risk aversion) required by returns data can be attributed to this lack of confidence.","PeriodicalId":11465,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Econometric & Statistical Methods - General eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Ambiguous State Dynamics, Learning, and Endogenous Long-Run Risk\",\"authors\":\"Hongseok Choi\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3399366\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper considers learning about unobservable state variables when their dynamics are ambiguous. Ambiguity in dynamics, differently from that in a parameter, is never fully resolved; and, since data are to be filtered through the state equation, learning about the state becomes more difficult, permanently. This endogenously amplifies the long-run risk in estimation. An application to the long-run risks model shows that some of the large long-run risk (and high risk aversion) required by returns data can be attributed to this lack of confidence.\",\"PeriodicalId\":11465,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Econometrics: Econometric & Statistical Methods - General eJournal\",\"volume\":\"18 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-09-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Econometrics: Econometric & Statistical Methods - General eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3399366\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Econometrics: Econometric & Statistical Methods - General eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3399366","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Ambiguous State Dynamics, Learning, and Endogenous Long-Run Risk
This paper considers learning about unobservable state variables when their dynamics are ambiguous. Ambiguity in dynamics, differently from that in a parameter, is never fully resolved; and, since data are to be filtered through the state equation, learning about the state becomes more difficult, permanently. This endogenously amplifies the long-run risk in estimation. An application to the long-run risks model shows that some of the large long-run risk (and high risk aversion) required by returns data can be attributed to this lack of confidence.