中国2050年碳中和目标对能源消费结构的影响

IF 3.1 4区工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI:10.1080/15567249.2022.2088896

Tao Zhang, Shuting Zhang, Jin-Dong Qu

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引用次数: 11

摘要

推进能源转型是实现中国碳中和目标的重大问题。基于能源政策模拟模型，模拟了与此相关的政策对中国能源消费的影响。结果显示如下。(1)相关政策的实施将显著降低一次能源消费总量，到2050年非化石能源将成为中国能源消费的主要来源。(2)到2050年，建筑、交通和工业对应的能源消耗将以电力为主导，并以非化石能源发电为主。(3)到2030年，中国将达到碳排放峰值，非化石能源将占全国一次能源消费的43%，其中包括电力(73%)、太阳能(11%)、风能(7%)、水能(7%)和生物质能(2%)。(4)新冠肺炎疫情对这一进程具有短期推动作用，初期减缓了全球经济合作，但长期具有阻碍作用。

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The impact of China’s carbon neutrality target on its energy consumption structure by 2050

ABSTRACT Promoting energy transformation is a major issue in achieving China’s carbon neutrality target. The changes in China’s energy consumption stemming from the policies related to this issue were simulated based on the energy policy simulation model. The results show the following. (1) Implementing related policies will significantly decrease total primary energy consumption, and non-fossil energy will be China’s main source of energy consumption by 2050. (2) The energy consumption corresponding to buildings, transportation, and industry will be electricity-led by 2050, and electricity will mainly be generated with non-fossil energy sources. (3) In 2030, China will reach a carbon peak, and non-fossil energy will account for 43% of the country’s primary energy consumption, comprising electrical (73%), solar (11%), wind (7%), hydro (7%) and biomass (2%) energy. (4) COVID-19 has had a short-term driving effect on this process, as it initially slowed down global economic cooperation, but it has had a hindering effect on the process in the long term.

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来源期刊

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy ENERGY & FUELS-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

12.80%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

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