A Predictive Model to Detect the Impending Electric Submersible Pump Trips and Failures

Trips and failures are common occurrences in the Electric Submersible Pump (ESP) systems. The random nature of these trips and failures will lead to low industry run-life and high workover costs for ESP companies and operators. To perform early detection and take corrective actions to handle the potential incidents, ESP operation data collected from downhole and surface sensors are used to perform diagnostics and prognostics to identify trips and failures. In this study, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method serves as a pre-processing method to retain the most essential principal components to reevaluate the initial ESP system. For a single well system, the Squared Prediction Error (SPE) and Hotelling T-square statistic (T2) equations are employed for numerical visualization in the new principal component space and therefore detection of the potential ESP trips or failures. For the whole well group, the score plot of three principal components provides a solution that enables to distinguish different clusters of stable operation, trip and failure regions, and diagnose the upcoming ESP trips and failures. In this way, the predictive model is bulit to continuously analyze the ESP operation and automatically perform health monitoring for any ESP system. This paper concludes that the predictive model has the potential to construct a real-time proactive surveillance system to identify dynamic anomalies and therefore predict developing trips or failures in the ESP system.