基于样条的时变繁殖数，用于模拟流行病学暴发

IF 1 4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-05 DOI:10.1093/jrsssc/qlad027

Eugen Pircalabelu

{"title":"基于样条的时变繁殖数，用于模拟流行病学暴发","authors":"Eugen Pircalabelu","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad027","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak, focusing on the COVID-19 epidemic. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modelling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modelling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number, which is then used to assess the evolution of the epidemic for several countries.","PeriodicalId":49981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks\",\"authors\":\"Eugen Pircalabelu\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad027\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak, focusing on the COVID-19 epidemic. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modelling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modelling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number, which is then used to assess the evolution of the epidemic for several countries.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49981,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics\",\"volume\":\"26 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-04-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad027\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad027","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

摘要

我们在本文中开发了一种对流行病学暴发再现数进行估计和推断的方法，重点是COVID-19流行病。估计器是时变的，并使用样条建模来适应爆发的变化。这是通过直接将一系列新感染作为时间函数进行建模，然后使用该函数的导数来确定随时间变化的繁殖数，然后用于评估若干国家流行病的演变情况来实现的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak, focusing on the COVID-19 epidemic. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modelling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modelling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number, which is then used to assess the evolution of the epidemic for several countries.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics 数学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics) is a journal of international repute for statisticians both inside and outside the academic world. The journal is concerned with papers which deal with novel solutions to real life statistical problems by adapting or developing methodology, or by demonstrating the proper application of new or existing statistical methods to them. At their heart therefore the papers in the journal are motivated by examples and statistical data of all kinds. The subject-matter covers the whole range of inter-disciplinary fields, e.g. applications in agriculture, genetics, industry, medicine and the physical sciences, and papers on design issues (e.g. in relation to experiments, surveys or observational studies). A deep understanding of statistical methodology is not necessary to appreciate the content. Although papers describing developments in statistical computing driven by practical examples are within its scope, the journal is not concerned with simply numerical illustrations or simulation studies. The emphasis of Series C is on case-studies of statistical analyses in practice.