猪经济:纾困与内部纾困

M. Beljić
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了全球危机转化为债务危机后欧元区外围经济体的纾困和内部纾困计划。偿债成本的持续上升,导致PIGS经济体(葡萄牙、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙)要么退出欧元区,要么就救助计划进行谈判。利用面板修正标准误差(PCSE)方法,研究表明,2011-2019年期间,纾困计划对猪经济体的GDP增长产生了负面影响,这是挤出效应的结果。然而,结果表明,救助计划对财政变量有正向影响。另一种解决方案是纾困机制,这是一种可持续的机制,不会给纳税人带来负担。以西班牙和葡萄牙的银行为例,结果表明,实施纾困计划可以避免恐慌和传染效应;然而,在未来发生危机的情况下,纾困计划对实体经济的影响仍有待检验。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
PIGS ECONOMIES: BAIL-OUT VS. BAIL-IN
This paper analyzes bail-out and bail-in programs in the Eurozone periphery economies after the transformation of the global crisis into a debt crisis. Continuous rise of debt service costs was leading PIGS economies (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) either to abandon of Eurozone or to negotiate rescue programs. Using Panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) method, the research shows that bail-out programs had a negative effect on GDP growth in PIGS economies in the period 2011-2019, as the consequence of crowding-out effects. However, the results showed that bail-out programs could positively affect fiscal variables. An alternative solution is the bail-in mechanism, which is a sustainable mechanism that does not burden taxpayers. Based on examples of banks in Spain and Portugal, results show that using bail-in programs, panic and contagion effects could be avoided; however, in the case of future crisis, the effects of bail-in programs on the real economy still need to be examined.
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