Natives’ and migrants’ employment uncertainty and childbearing during the great recession: a comparison between Italy and Sweden

ABSTRACT This study contributes to the empirical research on the fertility decline registered in Europe in the aftermath of the Great Recession adopting a comparative perspective. We explore childbearing behavior during the crisis across three dimensions of vulnerability: migration background (measured as: country of origin and length of stay in the destination country), labor market uncertainty, and country of residence. We compare childbearing behavior by parity among native and migrant women with different employment statuses in Sweden and Italy. Using the Swedish population registers and the Italian Labor Force Survey, we investigate the change in childbearing probabilities between the pre-crisis (2006–2009) and the years following the onset of the crisis (2010–2015). We find that the chances of motherhood in the aftermath of the Great Recession decreased substantially among recently arrived migrant women, but also among unemployed natives and women with unstable careers. The migration and labor market vulnerabilities, however, do not accumulate: unemployment and career instability negatively affect only native women’s probability of motherhood. Finally, the country comparison demonstrates that while the duration of stay and the weaker labor market attachment reduces the chances of motherhood in both contexts, the negative effect of unemployment is particularly strong in Italy.