偏卧与泊松二项分布

Norbert Pierre
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在一项一步三谎实验中,受试者私下观察一个随机装置,该装置表示低回报、中等回报或高回报。实验对象所报告的内容都会得到报酬,为了获得更高的报酬,会诱使一些实验对象撒谎。本文提出了一种基于泊松二项分布的实验结果分析方法。我导出了给定低收益和中等收益报告数量的受试者撒谎的条件概率的封闭形式表达式。根据这些报告,除了说谎的条件概率外,我还使用二项分布和泊松二项分布来计算受试者说谎的概率和撒谎者的预期数量。我用这些来计算观察每种类型收益的二项先验的贝叶斯更新。然后将所有这些结合起来,以创建最可能解释结果的场景。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Partial Lying and the Poisson Binomial Distribution
In a one-step trinary lying experiment, subjects privately observe a random device that indicates a low payoff, an intermediate payoff or a high payoff. Subjects are paid whatever they report, inducing some subjects to lie in order to receive a higher payoff. This paper presents a methodology for analyzing the experimental results based on the Poisson binomial distribution. I derive closed-form expressions for the conditional probability that a subject will lie given the number of low and intermediate payoff reports. Given these reports, in addition to the conditional probability of lying, I use the binomial and Poisson binomial distributions to calculate the probability that a subject did lie and the expected number of liars. I use these to calculate a Bayesian update of the binomial priors of observing each type of payoff. All of these are then combined to create the most likely scenario explaining the results.
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