国际旅游与泰国经济增长的实证研究:基于ARDL - ECM的边界检验方法

Q3 Business, Management and Accounting

International Journal of Management and Enterprise Development Pub Date : 2022-04-26 DOI:10.20414/jed.v4i1.4793

Rahmatullah Pashtoon, Zakirullah Zaki, Naqibullah Haqbin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的-研究旅游业对泰国经济增长的影响。研究方法-本研究使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)界限测试方法进行，于1995年至2018年期间进行。结果-分析发现数据存在长期协整。应用ECM方法，结果表明长期协整存在。然而，模型显示FDI与经济增长之间不存在显著的正相关关系。研究结果表明，相对于长期的积极影响，旅游业在短期内的积极影响极低。研究结果表明，旅游业的短期乐观效应略小于长期乐观效应。这可能是因为某些政府限制和其他外部因素在短期内阻碍了游客抵达泰国。因此，政府需要解决这些贸易、运输、税收、资本分配和环境风险方面的制约因素，以吸引更多的旅游游客，从而提高泰国的经济增长。

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Empirical study on international tourism and economic growth of Thailand: an ARDL - ECM bounds testing approach

Purpose — To examine the impact of tourism on economic growth in Thailand.Research method — This study was conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, performed between 1995 and 2018.Result — The analysis finds out that there is a long-run cointegration in the data. The ECM approach is applied, and the results conclude that the long-run cointegration exists. However, the model depicts that there is not any significant positive relation between FDI and economic growth. The study results showed that the positive impact of tourism in the short term is extremely low, relative to that of the long term. The study results indicate that tourism's optimistic short-term effect is slightly smaller than in the long-term. This can be because certain government restrictions and other exogenous factors hinder the arrival of visitors in Thailand in the short term. Therefore, the government needs to resolve these constraints concerning trade, transportation, taxes, allocation of capital, and environmental risks to attract further tourism visitors and thus improve Thailand's economic growth.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Management and Enterprise Development Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： IJMED is a major international research journal dedicated to business development strategy and entrepreneurship policy as well as management processes in an international and cross-cultural context. IJMED provides a venue for high quality papers including theoretical research articles, evidence-based case studies and practical applications seeking to explore best practice and investigate strategies for rapid growth management in SMEs. IJMED has a history of contributing to the academic literature, providing conceptual and practical insights and generating innovative ideas for organizational enterprise. Topics covered include: -SMEs'' start-up development, corporate venturing- Technological opportunities, new firm creation, valuation- Technological adoption, technology transfer, technopreneurship- Joint ventures/alliances, franchising and corporate ownership- Business incubator development strategy- Economic and social entrepreneurship- Virtual coaching services for SMEs- SMEs and entrepreneurship policy- Start-up cognitions/behaviours- Halo effect, technology licensing- Long-run technology investments- Knowledge management/technology strategy in SMEs- Managing rapid growth, accelerating competitive effectiveness- Strategy decision speed and SME performance- Entrepreneurs in non-profit sector.