中国纺织品进口对南非经济中纺织行业就业和附加值的影响

IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS

Global Economy Journal Pub Date : 2019-09-04 DOI:10.1142/S2194565919500088

Lumengo Bonga‐Bonga, M. Biyase

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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着中国和非洲经济之间贸易联系的增加，本文试图评估中国纺织品进口对南非纺织业就业和附加值的动态影响。本文采用带符号约束的结构向量自回归(SVAR)方法。此外，基于这种方法，本文进行了反事实分析，以揭示在没有与中国贸易的情况下，南非纺织业的就业和增值趋势会发生什么。实证分析结果表明，总就业对中国进口冲击的响应为负。此外，反事实分析的结果表明，如果没有从中国进口纺织品，南非经济可能会表现得更好。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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THE IMPACT OF THE CHINESE TEXTILE IMPORTS ON EMPLOYMENT AND VALUE ADDED IN THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

With the increased trade linkage between China and African economies, this paper endeavours to assess the dynamic impacts of Chinese textile imports on employment and value added in the South African textile industry. This paper makes use of the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology with sign restriction. Moreover, based on this methodology, this paper conducts a counterfactual analysis to uncover what would have happened to employment and value added trends in the South African textile industry in the absence of trade with China. The results of the empirical analysis show that total employment responds negatively to shocks to import from China. Moreover, the results of the counterfactual analysis show that the South African economy could perform better without textile imports from China.

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来源期刊

Global Economy Journal ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

14.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The GEJ seeks to publish original and innovative research, as well as novel analysis, relating to the global economy. While its main emphasis is economic, the GEJ is a multi-disciplinary journal. The GEJ''s contents mirror the diverse interests and approaches of scholars involved with the international dimensions of business, economics, finance, history, law, marketing, management, political science, and related areas. The GEJ also welcomes scholarly contributions from officials with government agencies, international agencies, and non-governmental organizations. One over-arching theme that unites IT&FA members and gives focus to this journal is the complex globalization process, involving flows of goods and services, money, people, and information.