卡拉苏次流域水文气象参数趋势分析创新方法比较

Cihangir Köyceği̇z, Meral Büyükyildiz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于全球变暖的影响,受气候变化影响最严重的国家之一是气候结构复杂的挪威。由于地形结构、地理位置和地形特征的不同,这些影响在不同的地区会有所不同。趋势分析用于确定这种变化的方向和幅度。本研究利用位于幼发拉底河流域的卡拉苏次流域的径流和气象站的水文气象资料进行趋势分析。将Şen-Innovative趋势分析、Onyutha趋势检验、Wilcoxon检验和散点图趋势检验相结合的趋势分析方法与经典Mann-Kendall方法结合,对1979-2020年水文气象资料进行月尺度分析。图形和统计趋势分析都可以用创新的方法来完成。在α=0.05显著性水平上进行趋势分析的结果显示,平均流量、最大降水量、总降水量、平均相对湿度和最小相对湿度等参数均有显著或不显著的下降趋势。最高、最低、平均温度、最大相对湿度和平均风速均有显著或不显著的增加趋势。用一般方法得到的趋势是一致的。这项研究的发现可以使人们更好地了解该地区的水文,并有助于可持续的水管理。研究中使用的趋势分析方法对水文气象时间序列的分析有很大的帮助。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
COMPARISON OF INNOVATIVE TREND ANALYSIS METHODS FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN THE KARASU SUB-BASIN
Türkiye, which has a complex climate structure, is shown among the countries that will be most affected by climate change with the effect of global warming. These effects will differ in different regions due to their topographic structure, location, and orographic characteristics. Trend analyzes are used to determine the direction and magnitude of this variability. In this study, trend analysis was carried out by using hydrometeorological data obtained from streamflow and meteorology stations located in the Karasu Sub-Basin located in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Three innovative trend methods, namely the Şen-Innovative Trend Analysis, Onyutha Trend Test, Combination of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter Diagram trend tests, were used together with the classical Mann-Kendall method in the monthly scale analysis of hydrometeorological data of the 1979-2020 period. Both graphical and statistical trend analysis can be done with innovative methods. The results obtained in the study, in which trend analyses were evaluated at the α=0.05 significance level, reveal significant and insignificant decreasing trends in the parameters of mean streamflow, maximum precipitation, total precipitation, mean and minimum relative humidity. Significant and insignificant increasing trends were determined in the maximum, minimum, and mean temperature, maximum relative humidity, and mean wind speed data. The trends obtained in the methods used in general are consistent with each other. The findings of this study could lead to a better knowledge of the region's hydrology and contribute sustainable water management. The trend analysis methods used in the study are thought to be quite helpful in the analysis of hydro-meteorological time series.
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