中国能源消费与经济增长动态对减排的政策启示

Juan Yang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国能源消费与经济增长之间的关系是什么?节能减排措施是否会对经济增长产生不利影响?本文基于新古典生产模型,采用国内最长时间序列进行实证分析。本文结合有向A循环图(DAG)和Cholesky分解找出能源与GDP之间的同步因果关系,然后利用误差修正模型和脉冲响应研究这些变量在长期和短期内的动态关系,最后阐述能源消费与GDP增长之间的动态关系对未来减排政策的重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Policy Implication for Emission Reduction of Dynamics between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China
What is the relationship between China's energy consumption and economic growth? Will energy saving and emission cutting measures adversely affect economic growth? Based on the neoclassical production model, this study performs empirical analysis with the longest time series available in China. We combine the Directed A cyclic Graphs (DAG) with Cholesky decomposition to find the contemporaneous causal flows between energy and GDP, then employ the error correction model and impulse response to study the dynamics among these variables both in the long run and in the short run, finally we elaborate the important implication of dynamics between energy consumption and GDP growth for future emission reduction policy.
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