SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF BELEXLINE AND BELEX15 MOVEMENTS

At the onset of 2019, global economy has been facing a number of macroeconomic issues, which significantly multiplied in the course of the past ten-year period. Slow-moving rate of economic growth, increased fiscal deficits, enormous public and private debt – these are just some of the issues which led to the plunge of the leading stock market indices at the end of 2018. Bearing in mind that S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ Composite stopped the multiannual growth trend which started on March 22, 2009, new quakes on the global financial market may well be expected. Unlike developed global stock markets, which hugely recovered from the 2008 crash, the Belgrade Stock Exchange showed no significant growth trend in the observed period. In this respect, regardless of the detected declines of the world’s best known stock market indices, it is not realistic to expect any significant change in the Belgrade Stock Exchange share market, which the conducted empirical research should confirm. The basic goal of the research is to establish the monthly tendencies of BELEXline and BELEX15 movements in the forthcoming one-year period. The basic hypothesis of the research is that there will be no significant changes in the movement of the values of selected stock market indicators in the Belgrade Stock Exchange share market during the one-year period to come.