{"title":"土耳其制造业劳动生产率对欧盟的影响分析","authors":"Dursun Balkan, G. Akyuz","doi":"10.3846/jbem.2023.19059","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study offers an in-depth analysis of labour productivity of manufacturing sector in Turkey and provides a comparison with EU27 and EA19 countries utilizing Eurostat time series data of 63 quarters covering 2005/first quarter-2020/third quarter time interval. Productivity trends are identified and interpreted by relating them with the key macroeconomic events and factors. Multiple linear and non-linear regression equations, and ARIMA model with different parameters are applied to the time series data considering the periods with and without covid effect. Future projections are made for the periods 2020–2023 for Turkey manufacturing sector based on the best fitting regression and ARIMA solutions and they are compared. Findings revealed that extreme covid conditions of even two quarters of data have significant impact on the forecasted values for Turkey, EU27 and EA19 countries. ARIMA analysis with 12 different parameter settings provided accurate results, supported by Thiel’s inequality coefficients and standard error measures. Analysis has shown consistent patterns between EA19 and EU27 countries. ARIMA results represent better compatibility with the regression results for Turkey. Study is valuable by providing comprehensive and comparative analysis, revealing future forecasts and covid effect and degree of recovery from the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":47594,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Economics and Management","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN TURKEY AGAINST EU\",\"authors\":\"Dursun Balkan, G. Akyuz\",\"doi\":\"10.3846/jbem.2023.19059\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study offers an in-depth analysis of labour productivity of manufacturing sector in Turkey and provides a comparison with EU27 and EA19 countries utilizing Eurostat time series data of 63 quarters covering 2005/first quarter-2020/third quarter time interval. Productivity trends are identified and interpreted by relating them with the key macroeconomic events and factors. Multiple linear and non-linear regression equations, and ARIMA model with different parameters are applied to the time series data considering the periods with and without covid effect. Future projections are made for the periods 2020–2023 for Turkey manufacturing sector based on the best fitting regression and ARIMA solutions and they are compared. Findings revealed that extreme covid conditions of even two quarters of data have significant impact on the forecasted values for Turkey, EU27 and EA19 countries. ARIMA analysis with 12 different parameter settings provided accurate results, supported by Thiel’s inequality coefficients and standard error measures. Analysis has shown consistent patterns between EA19 and EU27 countries. ARIMA results represent better compatibility with the regression results for Turkey. Study is valuable by providing comprehensive and comparative analysis, revealing future forecasts and covid effect and degree of recovery from the pandemic.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47594,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Business Economics and Management\",\"volume\":\"17 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-05-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Business Economics and Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2023.19059\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"Business, Management and Accounting\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Business Economics and Management","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2023.19059","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Business, Management and Accounting","Score":null,"Total":0}
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN TURKEY AGAINST EU
This study offers an in-depth analysis of labour productivity of manufacturing sector in Turkey and provides a comparison with EU27 and EA19 countries utilizing Eurostat time series data of 63 quarters covering 2005/first quarter-2020/third quarter time interval. Productivity trends are identified and interpreted by relating them with the key macroeconomic events and factors. Multiple linear and non-linear regression equations, and ARIMA model with different parameters are applied to the time series data considering the periods with and without covid effect. Future projections are made for the periods 2020–2023 for Turkey manufacturing sector based on the best fitting regression and ARIMA solutions and they are compared. Findings revealed that extreme covid conditions of even two quarters of data have significant impact on the forecasted values for Turkey, EU27 and EA19 countries. ARIMA analysis with 12 different parameter settings provided accurate results, supported by Thiel’s inequality coefficients and standard error measures. Analysis has shown consistent patterns between EA19 and EU27 countries. ARIMA results represent better compatibility with the regression results for Turkey. Study is valuable by providing comprehensive and comparative analysis, revealing future forecasts and covid effect and degree of recovery from the pandemic.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Business Economics and Management is a peer-reviewed journal which publishes original research papers. The objective of the journal is to provide insights into business and strategic management issues through the publication of high quality research from around the world. We particularly focus on research undertaken in Western Europe but welcome perspectives from other regions of the world that enhance our knowledge in this area. The journal publishes in the following areas of research: Global Business Transition Issues Economic Growth and Development Economics of Organizations and Industries Finance and Investment Strategic Management Marketing Innovations Public Administration.