不丹经济增长、通货膨胀和失业之间的关系

South Asia Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI:10.1177/1391561418822204

Ugyen M. Tenzin

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引用次数: 29

摘要

为了从宏观层面了解不丹失业的动态，本研究探讨了1998年至2016年经济增长、通货膨胀和失业之间的关系。应用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型估计经济增长和通货膨胀对失业的影响。这一实证分析的结果表明，经济增长对不丹失业率的降低在短期和长期都没有影响。事实上，随着经济增长，失业率也在上升。然而，通货膨胀与失业率在短期内呈负相关，而在长期内呈正相关。换句话说，就业率的上升在短期内导致了通货膨胀的上升。同样，如果不监测或控制通货膨胀，通货膨胀的不确定性可能导致投资减少和经济增长放缓，从而导致长期失业率上升。因此，本研究建议政策制定者考虑到经济产出方面的就业弹性，并将重点放在那些在吸引年轻劳动力市场进入者方面具有更强吸收能力的部门。Jel: b22, c22, e24, e31

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The Nexus Among Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment in Bhutan

In order to understand the dynamics of unemployment in Bhutan at a macro-level, this study has explored the association among economic growth, inflation and unemployment from 1998 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to estimate the impact of economic growth and inflation on unemployment. The results of this empirical analysis suggest that economic growth had no impact on the reduction of unemployment rate in Bhutan both in the short and in the long run. In fact, as the economic growth increased, so did the unemployment rate. However, inflation had a negative association with unemployment rate in the short run and a positive association in the long run. In other words, an increase in the employment rate led to an increase in the inflation in the short run. Likewise, if inflation is not monitored or controlled, the uncertainty of inflation can lead to lower investment and lower economic growth, thereby causing unemployment to rise in the long run. This study, therefore, recommends policymakers to take into account the employment elasticity with respect to economic output and focus on sectors, which have more absorptive capacity in engaging the young labour market entrants. JEL: B22, C22, E24, E31

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来源期刊

South Asia Economic Journal Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The South Asian nations have progressively liberalized their economies in recent years in an effort to integrate with the world economy. They have also taken steps to enhance multilateral and regional economic integration. Even though the South Asian economies have grown at an average rate of more than 5 per cent over the last few years, roughly 40 per cent of their people still live below the poverty line. Hence, the South Asian region continues to face many challenges of economic and social development. The South Asia Economic Journal (SAEJ) is designed as a forum for informed debate on these issues, which are of vital importance to the people of the region who comprise one-sixth of the world’s population. The peer-reviewed journal is devoted to economic analysis and policy options aimed at promoting cooperation among the countries comprising South Asia. It also discusses South Asia’s position on global economic issues, its relations with other regional groupings and its response to global developments. We also welcome contributions to inter-disciplinary analysis on South Asia. As a refereed journal, SAEJ carries articles by scholars, economic commentators,policy-makers and officials, from both the private and public sectors. Our aim is to create a vibrant research space to explore the multidimensional economic issues of concern to scholars working on South Asia. Among the issues debated in relation to South Asia are: - the implications of global economic trends; - the issues and challenges by WTO; - approaches to industrialization and development; - the role of regional institutions such as the SAARC; - the relationship between SAARC and other regional economic groupings such as ASEAN; - the implications of economic liberalization for trade and investment in the region; - new initiatives that can be launched to enhance economic cooperation among the South Asian countries both on a bilateral and a regional basis.