探讨阿根廷和乌拉圭经济增长与航空运输需求之间的因果关系

Q3 Social Sciences

World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research Pub Date : 2018-10-09 DOI:10.1504/WRITR.2018.10015193

J. Brida, Pablo D. Monterubbianesi, Sandra Zapata-Aguirre

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引用次数: 12

摘要

本文研究了乌拉圭和阿根廷两国航空运输对经济增长的长期影响。该研究采用1970年至2011年的年度数据，使用协整分析来考虑每个国家实际GDP与航空旅客数量之间存在的长期关系。结果表明，对于两个考虑的国家，该系列是协整的，并且可以估计误差修正模型(ECM)。格兰杰因果检验表明，两国的因果关系从GDP到航空运输量都是单向的。弹性和脉冲响应函数分析表明，乌拉圭的GDP冲击对乘客数量的影响高于阿根廷，这与航空市场的特点和各国的地理条件是一致的。结果显示了不同的政策和规划含义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Exploring causality between economic growth and air transport demand for Argentina and Uruguay

This paper investigates the effects in the long-term between air transportation and the economic growth in Uruguay and Argentina. Employing annual data from 1970 to 2011, the study uses cointegration analysis to consider the existence of a long-run relation between real GDP and the number of air passengers in each country. Results show that for both considered countries, the series are cointegrated and it is possible to estimate an error correction model (ECM). The Granger causality test shows that causality goes unidirectionally from GDP to air-transport for both countries. The elasticity and impulse-response function analysis shows that the effect of a GDP shock on the number of passengers is higher in Uruguay than in Argentina, which is consistent with the characteristics of the air market and the geographical conditions of each country. The results suggest different policy and planning implications.

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来源期刊

World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： There is an increasing demand for transportation solutions that are responsive, safe, sustainable, smart and cost-efficient. This has resulted in increased emphasis on responsive intermodal transportation systems. WRITR provides an international forum for the critical evaluation and dissemination of research and development in all areas related to intermodal transportation. Research disseminated via WRITR has significant impact on both theory and practice, and is of value to academics, practitioners and policy makers in this field. Topics covered include: -International trade and transportation -Infrastructure, network design and optimisation -Design, planning and control of transportation systems -Intermodal, intelligent and sustainable transportation solutions -Transportation modes (air, rail, road, sea, pipe) -Transportation cost/benefit analysis -Railroad, terminal and port development -Port/terminal operations and management -Warehousing and inventory management -Transportation regulations, standards and security -Environmental impact, liability and insurance -Risk analysis and management -Information technology and decision support systems -Strategic alliances and relationship management -Government involvement and incentives