赶时髦?上座率对最近NBA胜利的反应

IF 1.1 Q3 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2020-04-24 DOI:10.17632/H9RX475N8J.2

Ercio Muñoz, Jiadi Chen, Milan Thomas

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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要本文研究最近的胜利是否会影响体育赛事的上座率。我们采用回归不连续设计来估计一场胜利对随后的职业篮球比赛上座率的局部平均处理效果。使用1980-81赛季到2017-18赛季的nba数据，我们发现主队球迷对最近的比赛结果做出了反应，在一场势均力敌的比赛中，主队球迷的上座率大约增加了425人(增加了3%)。这个增量大约是最近对超级巨星效应估计的八分之一。当客队最近取得胜利时，我们没有发现出勤率效应，这为反对外部性的存在提供了证据。球迷对主场小胜相对小负的积极反应表明，最近的运气在体育上座率上得到了回报。我们讨论了可能的机制，并记录了上座率的逐渐下降，这与观看比赛的其他方式和二级门票市场的兴起相吻合。

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Jumping on the bandwagon? Attendance response to recent victories in the NBA

Abstract This article studies whether a recent victory impacts attendance at sports events. We apply a regression discontinuity design to estimate the local average treatment effect of a win on the attendance of subsequent games in professional basketball. Using National Basketball Association data from seasons 1980–81 to 2017–18, we find that home team fan bases react to recent outcomes, with an increase in attendance of approximately 425 attendants (a 3% boost) following a close win relative to a close loss. The increment is approximately one-eighth of a recent estimate of the superstar effect. We do not find an attendance effect when the visiting team has a recent victory, which provides evidence against the existence of externalities. The positive fan base response to narrow home wins relative to narrow losses suggests that recent luck is rewarded in sporting attendance. We discuss possible mechanisms and document a gradual decline in the attendance response that coincides with the rise of alternative means for viewing games and secondary markets for tickets.

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来源期刊

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS-

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS), an official journal of the American Statistical Association, publishes timely, high-quality peer-reviewed research on the quantitative aspects of professional and amateur sports, including collegiate and Olympic competition. The scope of application reflects the increasing demand for novel methods to analyze and understand data in the growing field of sports analytics. Articles come from a wide variety of sports and diverse perspectives, and address topics such as game outcome models, measurement and evaluation of player performance, tournament structure, analysis of rules and adjudication, within-game strategy, analysis of sporting technologies, and player and team ranking methods. JQAS seeks to publish manuscripts that demonstrate original ways of approaching problems, develop cutting edge methods, and apply innovative thinking to solve difficult challenges in sports contexts. JQAS brings together researchers from various disciplines, including statistics, operations research, machine learning, scientific computing, econometrics, and sports management.