评估激进主义、极端主义和恐怖主义在印度尼西亚国防中的传播,使用基于代理的模拟

Hendra Nurdiansyah, Hikmat Zakky Almubaroq, Agung Risdhianto, Much. Mualim
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引用次数: 1

摘要

国家解体问题是保卫印度尼西亚的最关键问题之一。国家解体的原因之一是激进主义、极端主义和恐怖主义(RET)的存在。激进实体可以通过恐怖行为等极端手段进行改变,以实现其目标。政府继续努力预测这一RET的推广。利用基于智能体的模拟建模技术,研究了RET的一些特征,如受影响的数量、驱动因素、一个地区的智能体数量和有效策略。因此,本研究旨在使用基于主体的模拟来评估RET在印度尼西亚的传播。本研究是定性描述,试图收集定性数据作为流程图设计和基于代理的仿真模型的初始输入,最终将被验证和验证。本研究通过关注潜伏期、可能暴露于激进主义、极端主义严重程度、康复中心的可用性和恐怖主义感染率等参数,利用Netlogo软件对RET的传播进行了基于agent的模拟。从模拟的结果可以看出,该参数极大地影响了激进特工的百分比,这些特工从极端分子变成恐怖分子。这一因素可以作为政策制定者通过增加宗教理解、加强民族主义意识和保卫国家以及实施社区赋权战略来有效减少RET蔓延的证据。对这一RET扩散的评估最终可以加强印度尼西亚的非军事防御。因此,良好的防御将对印度尼西亚的持续发展和目标的实现产生影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
EVALUATION OF THE SPREAD OF RADICALISM, EXTREMISM, AND TERRORISM IN INDONESIA'S DEFENSE USING AGENT-BASED SIMULATIONS
The issue of national disintegration is one of the most crucial in the defense of Indonesia. One of the causes of national disintegration is the existence of Radicalism, Extremism, and Terrorism (RET). Radical entities can change using extreme means including violence through acts of terror in achieving their goals. Efforts continue to be made by the Government in anticipating the spread of this RET. Using agent-based simulation modeling techniques, some characteristics in the RET such as numbers are affected, driving factors, the number of agents in a region, and effective strategies. Therefore, this study is aimed at evaluating the spread of RET in Indonesia using agent-based simulations. This research is qualitative descriptive by trying to collect qualitative data as an initial input for the creation of flowchart designs and agent-based simulation models that will eventually be verified and validated. The results of this study illustrate the agent-based simulation in the spread of RET using Netlogo software by paying attention to several parameters such as incubation period, possible exposure to radicalism, extremist severity, availability of rehabilitation centers, and the rate of terrorism infection. From the results of the simulation, it can be said that the parameter greatly affects the percentage of radical agents, agents who are extremists until they become terrorists. This factor can be evidence for policymakers to reduce the spread of RET effectively by increasing religious understanding, strengthening the sense of nationalism and defending the country, and implementing community empowerment strategies. The evaluation of the spread of this RET can eventually strengthen Indonesia's non-military defense. Thus, good defense will have implications for the continuous development and achievement of Indonesia's goals.
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