从全球视角看中国的可持续交通[社论]

Michael Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

阅读政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC, 2015)新发表的《2014年气候变化综合报告》(SYR),可以清楚地看到,越来越多的科学证据表明,人类活动对全球气候变化产生了影响。特别令人关切的是二氧化碳排放量和大气中二氧化碳浓度的持续增加。《气候研究报告》指出,2002 - 2011年CO2浓度以观测到的最快的年代际变化率(2.0 - 0.1 ppm/年)增加(同上:44)。这反映了我们利用以前的IPCC和IEA数据对二氧化碳浓度变化的总结(Zhang和Yazdani, 2014)。2010年二氧化碳年排放量为303亿吨,2013年二氧化碳浓度达到百万分之400 (IEA, 2012;联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会,2013)。在1990年至2013年的23年间,二氧化碳浓度水平从353ppm上升到400ppm,平均每年增加2.04 ppm。如果这一趋势保持不变,到2037年左右,二氧化碳浓度将达到450ppm的水平,这是许多研究人员用来模拟全球气候变化的二氧化碳浓度稳定基线。IPCC专家高可信度地估计,在1750年至2011年的工业化期间,人类活动产生的累计二氧化碳排放量中约有50%发生在过去40年(IPCC, 2015: 45)。事实上,在过去30年左右的时间里,世界见证了一些主要国家在二氧化碳排放贡献方面的显著变化。作为领先的工业化国家,美国一直是最大的二氧化碳排放国,直到2007年才被中国超越。1980年,美国的二氧化碳排放量占全球180亿吨二氧化碳排放量的25.8%。相比之下,同一年中国的二氧化碳排放贡献仅占7.9%,如表1所示(IEA, 2012)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Sustainable mobility in China from a global perspective [editorial]
Reading The Newly Published Synthesis Report (SYR) on Climate Change 2014 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2015), it becomes clear that there is increasing scientific evidence of anthropogenic impact, i.e. influence of human activities, on global climate change. Of particular concern are the continued increases of CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The SYR notes that CO2 concentrations are increasing at the fastest observed decadal rate of change (2.0 0.1 ppm/yr) for 20022011 (ibid.: 44). This reflects our summary of the changes of CO2 concentrations using previous IPCC and IEA data (Zhang and Yazdani, 2014). The magnitude of annual CO2 emissions was 30.3 gigatonnes in 2010 and the level of CO2 concentration reached 400 parts per million (ppm) in 2013 (IEA, 2012; IPCC, 2013). Over the period of 23 years between 1990 and 2013 the level of CO2 concentration rose from 353 ppm to 400 ppm giving it an average annual increase of 2.04 ppm/yr. If this trend remains unchanged CO2 concentration will by circa 2037 have reached the level of 450 ppm which is the baseline of CO2 concentration stabilisation used by many researchers for modelling global climate change. The IPCC experts estimate with high confidence that about 50% of the cumulative CO2 emissions generated by human activities during the industrial period between 1750 and 2011 occurred in the last 40 years (IPCC, 2015: 45). Indeed, in the last 30 years or so the world has witnessed marked changes in the contributions of CO2 emissions by some leading nations. As the leading industrialised country the US had been the largest CO2 emission contributor until 2007, when it was overtaken by China. In 1980 the US contributed 25.8% of the 18.0 gigatonnes of world CO2 emissions. In comparison, in the same year China's contribution of CO2 emissions accounted for only 7.9% as shown in Table 1 (IEA, 2012).
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