基于CMIP6模式数据的埃塞俄比亚吉马地区不同情景下的温度和降水趋势

Q3 Business, Management and Accounting
G. Fufa, Solomon Addisu, A. Regassa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用耦合模式比对项目第6期(CMIP6)数据集对吉马地区气温和降水的预估趋势进行了研究。这些变化是在三种共享社会经济途径(ssp;SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP6和SSP5-8.5)。本研究旨在分析埃塞俄比亚国家地理研究中心吉马地区的降雨和温度趋势。这项研究采用了曼-肯德尔的测试来检测降雨趋势的变化。Jimma地区降水趋势分析结果显示降水趋势呈下降趋势,总体趋势在1%和5%无统计学意义。预计在所有三个ssp下,整个区域的温度将升高,在SSP5-8.5下,温度将升高6°C,并且升高幅度更明显。研究区平均气温20℃~ 25℃,年平均气温22℃。1980—2020年的平均、最小和最大温度变化率分别为0.0181、0.3536、0.2041和0.026℃/ a。月降水资料的MK检验结果呈显著下降趋势(10%显著水平)。归因于最低温度的升高。因此,有必要根据变化情况调整农业活动,设计有计划性的气候变化适应策略,以提高依赖雨养小农的适应能力和恢复力
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Temperature and Precipitation Trends Using CMIP6 Model Data Using the Different Senarios in Jimma Zone, ONRS of Ethiopia
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected trend in temperature and precipitation over Jimma zone. The changes are computed under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP6 and SSP5-8.5) from 1980-2020. This study was undertaken to analyze rainfall and Temperature trend in Jimma zone, ONRS of Ethiopia. The study employed Mann-Kendall’s test to detect change in rainfall trends. Results for rainfall trend analysis for Jimma zone indicated decreasing trends, Overall, the observed trends were not statistically significant at 1% and 5%. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increased. The mean temperature in the study area ranges from 20’C to 25 ‘C with annual average temperature of 22 ‘C. The rate of change of temperature was found to be 0.0181, 0.3536, 0.2041 and 0.026 ‘C per decade for mean, minimum and maximum respectively during the period of 1980–2020. The results of MK test for monthly precipitation data revealed a statistically significant decreasing trend (at 10% level of significance). attributed to an increase in the minimum temperature. It is, therefore, imperative to adjust the agriculture activity with the variability situation and design planned climate change adaptation strategies so as to enhance the adaptive capacity and resilience of rainfed dependent smallholder farmers
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来源期刊
International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management
International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management Business, Management and Accounting-Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management
CiteScore
1.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: IJHRDM is established to cover all issues that arise when dealing with the most important of all resources - the human resource. This includes issues that are related to their growth and development as a tool in the workplace (e.g. skill training and proficiency enhancement) and in managing them effectively as a resource. The workplace is defined very broadly - it could be in a manufacturing setting or in a service setting in a changing and dynamic global environment. IJHRDM provides a refereed and authoritative source of information on aspects of human resources development and management, in manufacturing and services enterprises in a changing and dynamic global environment.
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