模拟自然资源丰富对该国腐败蔓延的影响

Viktoriia Bozhenko, Valeriia Herasymenko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的。本文的目的是估计自然资源对全球范围内腐败的影响程度。研究方法。本研究的方法论基础是比较、聚类(k-均值法)和典型相关分析方法的系统结合。为了描述该国的腐败程度,使用了三个指标(腐败控制水平、监管质量和法治),这些指标由世界银行专家在全球治理指标(WGI)项目中计算得出。该国提供的自然资源是可再生的(风能发电量、太阳能发电量、地热能发电量)和不可再生的(石油产量、天然气产量)。研究对象为世界上44个拥有可再生自然资源的国家和28个不可再生自然资源的国家。根据k-means方法的聚类分析结果,根据可再生和不可再生自然资源的提供水平,将国家划分为三个同质组。自然资源供给水平最高的集群包括美国和中国(可再生能源)以及美国和俄罗斯(不可再生能源)。乌克兰属于可再生和不可再生自然资源开采水平较低的集群。腐败程度取决于自然资源供给的假设是正确的,从以下指标可以看出:典型决定系数大于0.9;χ2为Bartler检验,其p值小于0.05。这两组变量之间最密切的关系存在于自然资源较为丰富的国家。通过系统地结合聚类分析和规范分析,开发了一种评估自然资源对腐败程度影响程度的科学方法。实用价值。国家当局和地方自治机构可以利用所获得的成果来打击自然资源管理系统中的腐败现象,并提高该国的投资吸引力。关键词:腐败,自然资源,聚类分析,规范分析,资源诅咒。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
MODELLING THE IMPACT OF NATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCE ON THE SPREAD OF CORRUPTION IN THE COUNTRY
Purpose. The aim of the article is estimating the degree of impact of natural resources on the corruption on the global scale. Methodology of research. The methodological basis of the study is a systematic combination of the methods of comparative, cluster (k-means method) and canonical correlation analyses. To characterize the level of corruption in the country, three indicators were used (the level of corruption control, regulatory quality and the rule of law), calculated by World Bank specialists within the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) project. The country's provision of natural resources is considered in terms of renewable (volume of wind electricity production, volume of solar electricity production, volume of geothermal energy production) and non-renewable (volume of oil production, volume of gas production). The research object is 44 countries of the world for renewable natural resources and 28 non-renewable countries. Findings. According to the results of the cluster analysis using the k-means method, three homogeneous groups of countries were distinguished depending on the level of their provision of renewable and non-renewable natural resources. The cluster with the highest level of supply of natural resources includes the USA and China (renewable sources) and the USA and Russia (non-renewable sources). Ukraine belongs to the cluster with a low level of extraction of renewable and non-renewable natural resources. The hypothesis that the level of corruption depends on the supply of natural resources is correct, as indicated by the following indicators: the canonical coefficient of determination is more than 0.9; χ2 is Bartler's test and its p-value is less than 0.05. The closest relationship between the two sets of variables exists in countries that are moderately endowed with natural resources. Originality. A scientific-methodical approach for assessing the degree of impact of natural resource on the level of corruption through a systematic combination of cluster and canonical analysis was developed. Practical value. The obtained results can be used by state authorities and local self-government bodies to combat corruption in the natural resources management system and increase the country's investment attractiveness. Key words: corruption, natural resources, cluster analysis, canonical analysis, resource curse.
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