离散时间贝叶斯序列复合假设检验

IF 0.6 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
Erik Ekstrom, Yuqiong Wang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

研究了在观测值较高的情况下,关于指数族中未知参数的两个备选假设的序贯检验问题。在贝叶斯设置中,问题可以嵌入到马尔可夫框架中。使用其中一个假设的条件概率作为潜在的空间变量,我们表明成本函数是凹的,并且后验分布随着时间的推移变得更加集中。此外,我们还研究了值函数的时间单调性。对于一大类模型规格,成本函数不随时间递减,因此最优停止边界是单调的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Bayesian sequential composite hypothesis testing in discrete time
We study the sequential testing problem of two alternative hypotheses regarding an unknown parameter in an exponential family when observations are costly. In a Bayesian setting, the problem can be embedded in a Markovian framework. Using the conditional probability of one of the hypotheses as the underlying spatial variable, we show that the cost function is concave and that the posterior distribution becomes more concentrated as time goes on. Moreover, we study time monotonicity of the value function. For a large class of model specifications, the cost function is non-decreasing in time, and the optimal stopping boundaries are thus monotone.
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来源期刊
Esaim-Probability and Statistics
Esaim-Probability and Statistics STATISTICS & PROBABILITY-
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
14
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The journal publishes original research and survey papers in the area of Probability and Statistics. It covers theoretical and practical aspects, in any field of these domains. Of particular interest are methodological developments with application in other scientific areas, for example Biology and Genetics, Information Theory, Finance, Bioinformatics, Random structures and Random graphs, Econometrics, Physics. Long papers are very welcome. Indeed, we intend to develop the journal in the direction of applications and to open it to various fields where random mathematical modelling is important. In particular we will call (survey) papers in these areas, in order to make the random community aware of important problems of both theoretical and practical interest. We all know that many recent fascinating developments in Probability and Statistics are coming from "the outside" and we think that ESAIM: P&S should be a good entry point for such exchanges. Of course this does not mean that the journal will be only devoted to practical aspects.
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