太阳活动的长期预测

Xu Zhen-tao, Zhao Ai-di, Xue Yi-sheng, Mei Yan-lin
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引用次数: 8

摘要

在回顾了迄今为止用于长期预测太阳活动的各种方法后,我们选择使用基于80年周期和概率考虑的方法。我们对第21个周期的预测是:1.年平均Wolf数的最大值:54–942。年平均Wolfs数的最小值:0–43。最大值的年代:1981年上半年-19834年上半年。最小值的时期:1976年上半年-1977年上半年我们的预测与其他预测进行了比较。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Long-term prediction of solar activity

After reviewing the various methods used so far in the long-term prediction of solar activity, we have opted to use methods based on the 80-year period and probability considerations. Our predictions for Cycle No. 21 are:

  • 1.

    Maximum of the annual average Wolf number: 54 – 94

  • 2.

    Minimum of the annual average Wolf number: 0 – 4

  • 3.

    Epoch of maximum: first half of 1981 - first half of 1983

  • 4.

    Epoch of minimum: first half of 1976 - first half of 1977

A comparison of our predictions with others is made.

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