Risk of Bowel Obstruction in Patients Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for High-risk Colon Cancer: A Nested Case-control-matched Analysis of an International, Multicenter, Randomized Controlled Trial (FOxTROT).

Objective: This study aimed to identify risk criteria available before the point of treatment initiation that can be used to stratify the risk of obstruction in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for high-risk colon cancer.

Background: Global implementation of NAC for colon cancer, informed by the FOxTROT trial, may increase the risk of bowel obstruction.

Methods: A case-control study, nested within an international randomized controlled trial (FOxTROT; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00647530). Patients with high-risk operable colon cancer (radiologically staged T3-4 N0-2 M0) that were randomized to NAC and developed large bowel obstruction were identified. First, clinical outcomes were compared between patients receiving NAC in FOxTROT who did and did not develop obstruction. Second, obstructed patients (cases) were age-matched and sex-matched with patients who did not develop obstruction (controls) in a 1:3 ratio using random sampling. Bayesian conditional mixed-effects logistic regression modeling was used to explore clinical, radiologic, and pathologic features associated with obstruction. The absolute risk of obstruction based on the presence or absence of risk criteria was estimated for all patients receiving NAC.

Results: Of 1053 patients randomized in FOxTROT, 699 received NAC, of whom 30 (4.3%) developed obstruction. Patients underwent care in European hospitals including 88 UK, 7 Danish, and 3 Swedish centers. There was more open surgery (65.4% vs 38.0%, P =0.01) and a higher pR1 rate in obstructed patients (12.0% vs 3.8%, P =0.004), but otherwise comparable postoperative outcomes. In the case-control-matched Bayesian model, 2 independent risk criteria were identified: (1) obstructing disease on endoscopy and/or being unable to pass through the tumor [adjusted odds ratio: 9.09, 95% credible interval: 2.34-39.66] and stricturing disease on radiology or endoscopy (odds ratio: 7.18, 95% CI: 1.84-32.34). Three risk groups were defined according to the presence or absence of these criteria: 63.4% (443/698) of patients were at very low risk (<1%), 30.7% (214/698) at low risk (<10%), and 5.9% (41/698) at high risk (>10%).

Conclusions: Safe selection for NAC for colon cancer can be informed by using 2 features that are available before treatment initiation and identifying a small number of patients with a high risk of preoperative obstruction.