Oracle和自适应单边测试错误发现率控制方法:理论及其在治疗效果评价中的应用

IF 2.9 4区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Jiaying Gu, Shu Shen
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引用次数: 11

摘要

经济学家通常感兴趣的是确定有效的政策或治疗方法,以及对这些治疗干预措施做出积极反应(或有预期迹象)的个体亚群。在本文中,我们提出了一种最优错误发现率控制方法,该方法特别适用于此类单侧测试问题。所提出的过程在最小化错误未发现率同时将错误发现率控制在预先指定的水平的意义上是最优的;它使用了一种基于非参数最大似然估计的反卷积方法,与现有方法相比,该方法允许更广泛的治疗效果分布。所提出的测试在蒙特卡洛模拟中证明了良好的小样本性能,并将其应用于研究罗马尼亚上选择性更强的高中的效果。该申请揭示了治疗效果异质性的有力证据,即如果排名较高的学校录取分数线相对较高,或者换句话说,更具选择性,那么勉强进入排名较高学校的学生更有可能受益。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Oracle and adaptive false discovery rate controlling methods for one-sided testing: theory and application in treatment effect evaluation

Economists are often interested in identifying effective policies or treatments together with subpopulations of individuals who respond positively (or with a sign that is expected) to these treatment interventions. In this paper, we propose an optimal false discovery rate controlling method that is especially useful for such one-sided testing problems. The proposed procedure is optimal in the sense of minimizing the false non-discovery rate while controlling the false discovery rate at a pre-specified level; it uses a deconvolution method based on non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation, which allows for a broader class of treatment effect distributions than existing methods do. The proposed test demonstrates good small-sample performance in Monte Carlo simulations and it is applied to study the effect of attending a more selective high school in Romania. The application reveals strong evidence of treatment effect heterogeneity, in that students who marginally gain access to higher-ranked schools are more likely to benefit if the higher-ranked school has a relatively high admission score cut-off – or, in other words, is more selective.

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来源期刊
Econometrics Journal
Econometrics Journal 管理科学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
5.30%
发文量
25
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Econometrics Journal was established in 1998 by the Royal Economic Society with the aim of creating a top international field journal for the publication of econometric research with a standard of intellectual rigour and academic standing similar to those of the pre-existing top field journals in econometrics. The Econometrics Journal is committed to publishing first-class papers in macro-, micro- and financial econometrics. It is a general journal for econometric research open to all areas of econometrics, whether applied, computational, methodological or theoretical contributions.
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