Predictors of disease recurrence in high-risk non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients post-surgical resection A single-center, retrospective study.

Introduction: Approximately 20-40% of kidney cancer patients treated for localized disease experience post-surgical recurrence. Several prognostic models exist to help clinicians determine the risk of distant recurrence, but these models vary in criteria and endpoints. We aimed to examine the recurrence rate and clinicopathologic factors as predictors of recurrence in high-risk renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients.

Methods: We conducted a single-center, retrospective chart review of pT3 RCC patients who underwent a nephrectomy between January 2000 and December 2015. Patients registered in clinical trials for adjuvant therapy and those with fewer than three years of followup were excluded. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and univariate and multivariate Cox regression were performed to identify the rate and predictors of disease recurrence.

Results: Eighty-eight pT3 RCC patients were included, and 39 patients had recurrence with a median of 23.5 months (range 1.6-127.5). Nine patients had disease recurrence beyond 58 months. Kaplan-Meier log-rank tests identified patients with negative surgical margins and low Fuhrman nuclear grades had greater recurrence-free survival. Univariate Cox regression revealed positive surgical margins, high Fuhrman nuclear grade, and large tumor sizes were significant predictors. In the multivariate Cox regression model, high Fuhrman nuclear grade and positive surgical margins were significant predictors of recurrence.

Conclusions: Disease recurrence occurred in 44% of pT3-staged patients. High Fuhrman nuclear grade and positive surgical margins were associated with time to recurrence. Physicians should use prognostic models to facilitate conversations about disease recurrence and continue to monitor high-risk patients beyond the recommended five-year followup period. We recommend monitoring pT3 resected patients for up to 10 years post-surgery.