Robustness of quantifying mediating effects of genetically regulated expression on complex traits with mediated expression score regression.

Genetic association signals have been mostly found in noncoding regions through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), suggesting the roles of gene expression regulation in human diseases and traits. However, there has been limited success in colocalizing expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) with disease-associated variants. Mediated expression score regression (MESC) is a recently proposed method to quantify the proportion of trait heritability mediated by genetically regulated gene expressions (GReX). Applications of MESC to GWAS results have yielded low estimation of mediated heritability for many traits. As MESC relies on stringent independence assumptions between cis-eQTL effects, gene effects, and nonmediated SNP effects, it may fail to characterize the true relationships between those effect sizes, which leads to biased results. Here, we consider the robustness of MESC to investigate whether the low fraction of mediated heritability inferred by MESC reflects biological reality for complex traits or is an underestimation caused by model misspecifications. Our results suggest that MESC may lead to biased estimates of mediated heritability with misspecification of gene annotations leading to underestimation, whereas misspecification of SNP annotations may lead to overestimation. Furthermore, errors in eQTL effect estimates may lead to underestimation of mediated heritability.