GIIPS和通胀趋同,二十年后几乎没有危机

Svetlana Popović
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引用次数: 0

摘要

论文分析了希腊、意大利、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙(GIIPS)的通胀趋同。这些国家受到金融和债务危机的严重打击,不得不实施通货紧缩调整计划,因此我们希望了解这些条件是否减少了欧元区的失衡。我们使用统计指标和s收敛指标来研究它们的通货膨胀过程的多样性。对通货膨胀差异的一系列标准差进行单位根检验,检验通货膨胀收敛的统计显著性。数据被分为两个子时期,1997-2008年和2009-2022年,以了解危机和紧缩措施对通货膨胀不对称和分化的影响。结果显示出显著的趋同,直到危机爆发后,差异才开始加大。这一发现很重要,因为通货膨胀率自2021年以来一直在上升,这再次导致成员国之间的通货膨胀率出现显著差异。我们是否应该担心一场新的债务危机,分歧是否已经充分缩小,失衡是否已经消除?
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
GIIPS and inflation convergence, two decades and few crisis later
Paper analysis inflation convergence in Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS). These countries were severely hit by financial and debt crisis and had to undertake deflationary adjustment programs, thus we wanted to understand weather those conditions reduced imbalances in Eurozone. We used statistical indicators and indicators of s-convergence to study the diversity of their inflation processes. Unit root test on the series of standard deviations of inflation differentials was used to check statistical significance of inflation convergence. Data was divided in two subperiods, from 1997-2008, and 2009-2022, to understand the influence of crisis and austerity measures on asymmetries and divergence of inflation. Results showed significant convergence until the crisis, than differences started to increase. This findings are important while inflation rises since 2021, and it again brought significant divergence between members' inflation rates. Should we fear of a new debt crisis, were the differences sufficiently reduced and imbalances removed?
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来源期刊
Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas
Ekonomika Vilniaus Universitetas Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15
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