公共收入和公共支出关系:欧元区异质性的证据

Olgica Glavaški, Emilija Beker-Pucar, Stefan Stojkov
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引用次数: 1

摘要

全球经济危机后,欧元区成员国身份对财政政策产生了巨大压力,这是一个广泛的共识,因为欧元区具有共同货币政策和异质财政政策的二分法。本文以欧元区19个经济体为研究对象,从2010年第一季度到2020年第四季度对财政政策绩效进行了分析,重点分析了公共收入与公共支出之间的关系。本研究基于Dumitrescu & Hurlin(2012)和Juodis, Karavias & Sarafidis(2021)宏观面板格兰杰非因果检验来检验因果关系方向,以及Westerlund基于误差校正的面板协整检验来分析财政可持续性。考虑到欧元区成员国的异质性和差异性,我们对欧元区核心、外围和新兴经济体的子样本进行了估计。结果表明,所有欧元区经济体的财政可持续性都较弱,而所有欧元区外围经济体都适用“税收和支出”假设。这一实证发现可能与以下事实有关:欧元区外围经济体受到全球和主权债务危机的打击更大,而实施的紧缩和纾困计划是充分的,从而导致了可持续的财政状况,减少了欧元区经济体内部财政表现的异质性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Public revenues and public expenditure nexus: Evidence of Eurozone heterogeneity
After the global economic crisis, a broad consensus has emerged that membership in the Eurozone exerts a strong pressure on fiscal policy, since it is characterized by the dichotomy of common monetary policy and heterogeneous fiscal policies. This paper analyzes the performance of fiscal policies, highlighting the nexus between the public revenues and public expenditure from the angle of 19 Eurozone economies in the period 2010q1-2020q4. The research is based on Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) and Juodis, Karavias & Sarafidis (2021) Granger non-causality tests in macro panels in order to test causality direction, as well as Westerlund errorcorrection-based panel cointegration test to analyze fiscal sustainability. Having in mind the heterogeneity and divergency of the Eurozone members, sub-samples were estimated, concerning the core, the periphery and the emerging Eurozone economies. The results imply that all Eurozone economies achieve weak fiscal sustainability, while all economies from the group of Eurozone periphery applied "tax and spend" hypothesis. The empirical finding could be related to the fact that Eurozone periphery economies were hit harder by the global and sovereign debt crisis, and that implemented austerity and bail-out programs were adequate, thus resulting in sustainable fiscal position, reducing heterogeneity of fiscal performance within the Eurozone economies.
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