{"title":"经济循环与二级观察:信用评级的现实","authors":"E. Esposito","doi":"10.5354/0718-0527.2014.30960","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"800x600 Can observers observe the economy from the outside? Recent developments in economic sociology tend to blur the classic distinction and combination of economy and society and to move to a model in which the observer is necessarily inside the society he describes. The behavior of financial actors can then be analyzed by combining two concepts: beauty contest and moral hazard - a combination that allows for a translation of their behavior into the terms and the tradition of observation theory. Keynes' beauty contest can be interpreted as a systematic recognition of second-order observation: financial operators primarily observe other observers and what they observe. This observation produces particular circularities - including the insoluble problem of moral hazard, which reproduces Merton's famous model of self-defeating/self-fulfilling prophecies in the field of finance. If finance consists in second-order observation, however, then its movements can no longer be explained in reference to the world, but in reference to observation and its structures: the reality reference of finance is increasingly provided by ratings, which can only offer information concerning what others observe. The spread of ratings in recent decades and the doubts about their reliability are related to the generalized move of modern society to second-order observation, which produces specific problems and specific puzzles, as well as structures and constraints. 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Circularidades económicas y observación de segundo orden: La realidad de las calificaciones crediticias
800x600 Can observers observe the economy from the outside? Recent developments in economic sociology tend to blur the classic distinction and combination of economy and society and to move to a model in which the observer is necessarily inside the society he describes. The behavior of financial actors can then be analyzed by combining two concepts: beauty contest and moral hazard - a combination that allows for a translation of their behavior into the terms and the tradition of observation theory. Keynes' beauty contest can be interpreted as a systematic recognition of second-order observation: financial operators primarily observe other observers and what they observe. This observation produces particular circularities - including the insoluble problem of moral hazard, which reproduces Merton's famous model of self-defeating/self-fulfilling prophecies in the field of finance. If finance consists in second-order observation, however, then its movements can no longer be explained in reference to the world, but in reference to observation and its structures: the reality reference of finance is increasingly provided by ratings, which can only offer information concerning what others observe. The spread of ratings in recent decades and the doubts about their reliability are related to the generalized move of modern society to second-order observation, which produces specific problems and specific puzzles, as well as structures and constraints. Normal 0 21 false false false ES-CL X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */
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期刊介绍:
The Journal Revista Mad - Universidad de Chile (www.revistamad.uchile.cl) is a biannual electronic publication sponsored by the Master in Systemic Analysis Applied to Society, belonging to the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Chile. The journal Revista Mad publishes original scientific papers in the field of social sciences, research advances, essays, book reviews and translations, in which theoretical perspectives and empirical approaches related to social systems theory and social constructivism, are applied. However, other theoretical perspectives, which contribute to Latin American social sciences, are also accepted.