五人制足球进球的时间分析:两种模型的比较

Q2 Health Professions
G. Moraes, Vinicius Soares, J. Chiminazzo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的。在五人制比赛中,进球是最重要的情况,可以带领球队走向胜利。了解他们何时得分可以帮助采取有效的策略,增加胜利的机会。本研究旨在比较分析五人制进球作为时间函数的两种模型。方法。总的来说,在2018年巴西五人制足球联赛的194场比赛中,研究人员分析了1122个进球。比赛时间分为4个10分钟的时段(常规模式)和8个5分钟的时段(另类模式)。将目标发生情况与重复测量的混合模型进行比较,并采用赤池信息准则(AIC)和贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)对模型进行拟合。结果。两种模型均具有统计学显著性(p < 0.001),表明目标均值随时期不同而不同。常规模型显示,最后10分钟进球均值较高(p < 0.001);替代模型表明,从第7期到第8期,平均目标增加了39.1% (95% CI: 0.27-0.64, p < 0.001)。此外,根据AIC和BIC, 5分钟模型比10分钟模型更适合。结论。这一发现表明,更可靠的模型有助于更好地理解关键事件(如进球)在比赛过程中的变化频率。我们为教练组提供信息,以战略性地思考他们的球队在竞技比赛中取得成功的最佳情况。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Temporal analysis of goals scored in futsal: a comparison of two models
Purpose. In futsal, the goal is the most important situation that can lead the teams to victory. the understanding of when they are scored can help adopting effective strategies, increasing the chances of victory. this study aimed to compare 2 models for analysing goals scored in futsal as a function of time. Methods. Overall, 1122 goals were analysed in 194 matches of the 2018 Brazilian Futsal League, male adult category. the playing time was divided into four 10-minute periods (conventional model) and eight 5-minute periods (alternative model). the goal occurrence was compared with mixed models of repeated measures, and the fit of models by Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Results. Both models were statistically significant ( p < 0.001), indicating that the means of goals were different depending on the periods. the conventional model showed that the mean of goals was higher in the final 10 minutes ( p < 0.001); the alternative model implied that from the seventh to the eighth period the mean of goals increased by 39.1% (95% CI: 0.27–0.64, p < 0.001). In addition, the 5-minute model revealed a better fit than the 10-minute model in accordance with AIC and BIC. Conclusions. this finding suggests that more reliable models are useful for better understanding of how the frequency of crucial events, such as goals, changes in the course of a match. We provide information for the coaching staff to strategi-cally think about the best situations for their teams to succeed in competitive matches.
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来源期刊
Human Movement
Human Movement Health Professions-Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
44
审稿时长
15 weeks
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