全球英国在国际政治和塞尔维亚与英国关系中的战略选择

M. Krstić
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2020年,大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国正式脱离欧盟。与这一巨大的地缘政治变化相一致,伦敦官方在国际关系中制定了一项新的综合战略,即所谓的“全球英国”。考虑到英国从19世纪初就开始对巴尔干半岛施加影响,这种地缘政治变化也引起了西巴尔干关系分析人士的关注。本文旨在回答以下问题:可以预期联合王国对西巴尔干地区,特别是对塞尔维亚共和国采取什么样的政策,以及塞尔维亚在与伦敦官方的关系中有哪些战略选择。该文件声称,英国在该地区的行动将在很大程度上取决于英国的全球战略,其主要目的是防止俄罗斯的扩散,以及在较小程度上防止中国的全球影响力。也有人声称,塞尔维亚对俄罗斯的态度,以及在较小程度上对中国的态度,将主要影响贝尔格莱德与伦敦关系的未来,尽管其他问题肯定会产生影响(科索沃和梅托希亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、与北约的安全合作等)。本文第一部分通过对外交和国防政策领域主要战略文件的分析,以及对英国近期国际关系行为的分析,提出了英国脱欧后“全球英国”的国际战略,并概述了英国的总体国际目标。论文的第二部分介绍了英国在西巴尔干地区的情况。论文的第三部分简要概述了过去五年来塞尔维亚与英国的关系,并指出了相互关系中的主要趋势、利益和障碍。本文的第四部分和最后一部分总结了塞尔维亚对英国采取行动的目标应该是什么,以及塞尔维亚的某些战略,但也更具体的政治决定如何影响两国之间的双边关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global Britain in international politics and strategic options of Serbia in relations with the United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland officially left the European Union in 2020. In line with this great geopolitical change, official London has produced a new integrated strategy for the so-called "Global Britain" in international relations. Considering that British influence on the Balkans has been present since early 19th century, this geopolitical change got the attention of the Western Balkan relations analysts as well. This text aims to provide an answer to the question of what kind of United Kingdom's policy can be expected towards the Western Balkans region, and towards the Republic of Serbia in particular, as well as what strategic options Serbia has at its disposal in its relationship with official London. The paper claims that the United Kingdom's actions in the region will be largely determined by the global British strategy, aimed primarily at preventing the spread of Russian and, to a lesser extent, Chinese global influence. It is also claimed that Serbia's attitude towards Russia and, to a lesser extent, China will primarily affect the future of Belgrade-London relations, although other issues will certainly have an impact (Kosovo and Metohija, Bosnia and Herzegovina, security cooperation with NATO, etc.). Through analysis of main strategic documents in the field of foreign and defence policy, as well as through the analysis of the recent UK behavior in international relations, the first part of the paper presents the international strategy of "Global Britain" after Brexit and outlines the general international goals of the UK. The second part of the paper presents British in the Western Balkans region. The third part of the paper presents a brief overview of Serbian-British relations in the last five years and points to key trends, benefits and obstacles in mutual relations. The fourth and last part of the paper summarizes what the goals of Serbian action towards the United Kingdom should be, and in what way certain strategic, but also more concrete political decisions of Serbia can affect bilateral relations between the two countries.
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