一个项目,两个折扣率

G. Davis
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引用次数: 14

摘要

传统金融理论推荐使用折现现金流量分析作为矿产资产估值的工具,但其计算值通常低于市场价值。金融理论也建议我们,如果一个未开发项目的净现值为正,就立即开发它。然而,大多数项目只有在经济非常有利的情况下才会开发。本文利用期权定价理论的见解来解释市场行为与金融理论之间的这些分歧,并对贴现现金流量分析提出简单的修改,从而使其产生正确的估值和开发时机建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ONE PROJECT, TWO DISCOUNT RATES
Traditional finance theory recommends discounted cash flow analysis as the tool to value mineral properties, yet the calculated values are usually lower than the market value. Finance theory also advises us to develop an undeveloped project immediately if its net present value is positive. Most projects are, however, only developed when the economics are highly favorable. This paper uses insights from option pricing theory to explain these divergences between market behavior and finance theory, and presents simple modifications to discounted cash flow analyses that will lead them to produce correct valuation and development timing advice.
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