2010年以来中美大国博弈态势探析 / An Analysis of the Big Game between China and the United States since 2010

林宏宇 张帅 【摘要】本文尝试对2010年以来中美两国在国际安全领域的大国博弈以及由此形成的中国国家安全环境负面化态势做出一个系统阐释。2010年中国GDP首次超过日本，成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体，中国崛起不再是国际关系学者的纸上谈兵，而是确确实实的国际关系现状，这种状况客观上打破了东亚国际安全格局的平衡，对已有的安全结构造成有力冲击。深感“权力转移”之忧的美国试图以重返亚太（又称“再平衡”）战略来缓阻中国崛起的势头。此战略客观上极大刺激了东亚地区某些国家借美抗华的念头，它们试图以制造事端来“引美入亚”，希望美国“主持公道”。美国也愿借助这些国家对华挑衅来增强其再平衡战略的效果。面对某些东亚国家对华核心国家利益的挑战，和平崛起的中国不得不严峻应对，其后果是中国落个“四处树敌”、国家安全环境负面化的态势。但中国不会就此终结和平崛起之路，美国也不会轻易放弃其国际霸权，这就意味着中美此轮安全博弈会持续相当长一段时间，可能出现一段相当长时间的安全困境。然而主客观条件决定中美不会爆发新冷战，更不会爆发世界大战。面对挑战，中国不应采取同美国针锋相对的战略，而应在美国不威胁中国核心国家利益与安全的基础上，对内继续坚持以经济建设为中心，对外继续坚持“韬光养晦”和“不结盟”，努力构建中美新型大国关系，走出安全困境。 This paper attempts to make a systematic explanation of the big game that has unfolded between China and the United States since 2010 in the field of international security and led to a deterioration of China’s national security environment. In 2010, the GDP of China surpassed the GDP of Japan for the first time, and China became the second largest economic entity in the world, surpassed only by the U.S. The rise of China was no longer just empty talk of a few scholars in the field of international relations. On the contrary, the rebalancing of international security relations changed and shook the existing security architecture in East Asia. As a consequence, the U.S. tried to use a pivot/rebalancing strategy to corrode China’s rising momentum which objectively stimulated some of the countries in East Asia to oppose China with the help of the U.S. The U.S. also wanted to strengthen its rebalancing strategy’s effectiveness via these countries’ actions. In the face of the challenges from these countries on China’s core national interests, China had to take the consequences seriously. But China will continue to adhere to the path of its peaceful rise whereas the U.S. will not give up its international hegemony easily as well. This means that the Sino-U.S. game will continue for quite a long period of time as will the security dilemma. However, it will not lead to a new cold war, let alone the outbreak of an extensive world war between China and the U.S. In the face of challenges, China should not take on the same strategy as the U.S. Only if the U.S. does not threaten the core national interests and the security of China, China should focus on economics internally and externally adhering to the "keeping a low profile" and "non-alignment" principles. China should also strive towards building a new type of relationship between China and the U.S. so that the security dilemma can end.