Godley-Tobin纪念讲座

IF 1.8 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.4337/ROKE.2021.01.01

R. Shiller

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引用次数: 4

摘要

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(1936)将“动物精神”或“自发乐观主义”作为商业波动的主要驱动力的概念，部分是由他和他同时代的人对概率无法量化的模糊情况下人类反应的观察所激发的。我们可以补充说，在这种模棱两可的情况下，有证据表明，人们会让具有传染性的流行叙事及其产生的情绪影响他们的经济决策。这些流行的叙述通常与事实基础相去甚远，只是具有传染性。宏观经济动态模型必须具有与流行病学中的疾病传播模型相关的理论。如果我们要提高对动物精神及其对经济的影响的理解，我们就需要认真对待叙事在经济建模中的传染性。

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John Maynard Keynes's (1936) concept of â€˜animal spiritsâ€™ or â€˜spontaneous optimismâ€™ as a major driving force in business fluctuations was motivated in part by his and his contemporaries' observations of human reactions to ambiguous situations where probabilities couldn't be quantified. We can add that in such ambiguous situations there is evidence that people let contagious popular narratives and the emotions they generate influence their economic decisions. These popular narratives are typically remote from factual bases, just contagious. Macroeconomic dynamic models must have a theory that is related to models of the transmission of disease in epidemiology. We need to take the contagion of narratives seriously in economic modeling if we are to improve our understanding of animal spirits and their impact on the economy.

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来源期刊

Review of Keynesian Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Review of Keynesian Economics (ROKE) is dedicated to the promotion of research in Keynesian economics. Not only does that include Keynesian ideas about macroeconomic theory and policy, it also extends to microeconomic and meso-economic analysis and relevant empirical and historical research. The journal provides a forum for developing and disseminating Keynesian ideas, and intends to encourage critical exchange with other macroeconomic paradigms. The journal is dedicated to the development of Keynesian theory and policy. In our view, Keynesian theory should hold a similar place in economics to that held by the theory of evolution in biology. Many individual economists still work within the Keynesian paradigm, but intellectual success demands institutional support that can leverage those individual efforts. The journal offers such support by providing a forum for developing and sharing Keynesian ideas. Not only does that include ideas about macroeconomic theory and policy, it also extends to microeconomic and meso-economic analysis and relevant empirical and historical research. We see a bright future for the Keynesian approach to macroeconomics and invite the economics profession to join us by subscribing to the journal and submitting manuscripts.