乌干达样本人群血清转化后预期剩余寿命的参数化

IF 0.1 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Daniel Polakow, T. Dunne, J. Whitworth
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引用次数: 0

摘要

艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行病在非洲的后果预计相当严重。目前对艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行病的了解有很大一部分来自欧洲或美洲的研究,或来自非洲城市环境的研究。相比之下,撒哈拉以南非洲感染该病毒的大多数人将生活在农村社区。获得非洲农村环境的人口资料是很重要的。这项贡献的目的是调查和核实非洲农村地区1型艾滋病毒的死亡率模式。这组作者研究了乌干达马萨卡地区8年来的艾滋病死亡率数据。这些数据是双变量的,属于一种称为双重审查的类型。作者探讨了使用双重审查数据估计自一致模式所需的非参数程序。有关年龄和性别的资料也纳入分析。使用一系列生存概率模型对结果进行参数化。Gompertz概率模型提供了一个合理的模拟8年的经验潜在危险,在所有年龄段,可以被认为是一个合理的近似的艾滋病毒/艾滋病死亡率模型的现象和本研究的背景。结果还表明,血清转化时的预期死亡时间明显受血清转化时年龄的影响。然而,在获得进一步的数据之前,对这些死亡率模式的推断必然仍未得到证实,而将这些发现推广到其他情况的能力仍是一个值得进一步研究的课题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
PARAMETERISATION OF EXPECTED RESIDUAL LIFETIME AFTER SEROCONVERSION IN A UGANDAN SAMPLE POPULATION
The consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa are expected to be considerable. A great deal of what is presently known about the HIV/AIDS epidemic has originated from studies in Europe or the Americas, or from urban African contexts. In contrast, the majority of people in sub-Saharan Africa infected with the virus will live in rural communities. It is important that demographic information be obtained for this rural African environment. This contribution is aimed at investigation and verification of HIV-1 mortality patterns in a rural African context. The authors examine eight years of incident HIV mortality data arising from the Masaka district in Uganda. These data are bivariate and of a type termed doubly censored. The authors explore the non-parametric procedures required for estimation of self-consistent patterns using doubly censored data. Information on age and gender is also incorporated into the analyses. The results are parameterised using a range of survival probability models. The Gompertz probability model provides a reasonable emulation of eight years of empirical underlying hazard, over all age classes, and can be considered as a reasonable first approximation to the HIV/AIDS mortality model for the phenomenon and context of this study. The results also indicate that expected time to death at seroconversion is appreciably affected by age at seroconversion. Extrapolation of these mortality patterns into the future will, however, necessarily remain unsubstantiated until further data become available and the ability to generalise these findings to other contexts remains a subject worthy of further study.
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来源期刊
South African Actuarial Journal
South African Actuarial Journal BUSINESS, FINANCE-
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