{"title":"厄立特里亚高地季节性降雨预报的统计模型","authors":"Mt Mebrhatu, M. Tsubo, S. Walker","doi":"10.4314/DAI.V19I1.15768","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"A deterministic model was developed to investigate how global rainfall predictors relate to the two main rainy months in the highlands of Eritrea. The main aim of looking at these relationships is to develop a simple statistical model for forecasting rainfall amount. In a preliminary step, in order to identify the most influential rainfall predictor, a correlation matrix and step-wise regression of 10 predictors with different lags were analysed. The influence of the southern Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature was identified as the most influential predictor for the highland of Eritrea. A model was developed and validated giving a promising result. Keywords : Highlands of Eritrea, Indian Ocean SST, Jack-knife cross-validation, Statistical model Discovery and Innovation Vol. 19 (1) 2007: pp. 37-42","PeriodicalId":50577,"journal":{"name":"Discovery and Innovation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2009-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"6","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A statistical model for seasonal rainfall forecasting over the highlands of Eritrea\",\"authors\":\"Mt Mebrhatu, M. Tsubo, S. Walker\",\"doi\":\"10.4314/DAI.V19I1.15768\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"A deterministic model was developed to investigate how global rainfall predictors relate to the two main rainy months in the highlands of Eritrea. The main aim of looking at these relationships is to develop a simple statistical model for forecasting rainfall amount. In a preliminary step, in order to identify the most influential rainfall predictor, a correlation matrix and step-wise regression of 10 predictors with different lags were analysed. The influence of the southern Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature was identified as the most influential predictor for the highland of Eritrea. A model was developed and validated giving a promising result. Keywords : Highlands of Eritrea, Indian Ocean SST, Jack-knife cross-validation, Statistical model Discovery and Innovation Vol. 19 (1) 2007: pp. 37-42\",\"PeriodicalId\":50577,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Discovery and Innovation\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2009-02-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"6\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Discovery and Innovation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4314/DAI.V19I1.15768\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Discovery and Innovation","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4314/DAI.V19I1.15768","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
摘要
开发了一个确定性模型来研究全球降雨预测因子与厄立特里亚高地的两个主要雨季之间的关系。研究这些关系的主要目的是建立一个简单的统计模型来预测降雨量。为了确定最具影响力的降雨预测因子，对10个具有不同滞后的预测因子进行了相关矩阵和逐步回归分析。南印度洋海表温度的影响被确定为厄立特里亚高地最具影响力的预测因子。建立了一个模型并进行了验证，得到了令人满意的结果。关键词:厄立特里亚高地，印度洋海温，交叉验证，统计模型发现与创新Vol. 19 (1) 2007: pp. 37-42
A statistical model for seasonal rainfall forecasting over the highlands of Eritrea
A deterministic model was developed to investigate how global rainfall predictors relate to the two main rainy months in the highlands of Eritrea. The main aim of looking at these relationships is to develop a simple statistical model for forecasting rainfall amount. In a preliminary step, in order to identify the most influential rainfall predictor, a correlation matrix and step-wise regression of 10 predictors with different lags were analysed. The influence of the southern Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature was identified as the most influential predictor for the highland of Eritrea. A model was developed and validated giving a promising result. Keywords : Highlands of Eritrea, Indian Ocean SST, Jack-knife cross-validation, Statistical model Discovery and Innovation Vol. 19 (1) 2007: pp. 37-42
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