肯尼亚基西气候变率评估及其对粮食安全的影响

M. P. Samwel, R. Abila, S. Mabwoga
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化和多变性已被列为影响若干国家经济的现代挑战之一,导致世界各地粮食短缺和粮食不安全,并代表着当代根本性的环境冲击。肯尼亚也不例外。这项研究是在肯尼亚国家面包篮Kisii县进行的,并调查了1983-2013年间气候变化的趋势。本研究的目的是研究基思县的降水和温度趋势。研究的问题是寻找作为气候变率指标的降雨和温度是否有显著的趋势和模式。该研究考察了31年(1983年至2013年)的气候变率。数据来自肯尼亚气象部门,计算其年平均值。采用Mann - Kendall统计检验确定降水和温度的变化趋势是否显著。在95%的置信水平上,基溪县的降雨量没有明显的上升趋势,而气温则呈现出明显的上升趋势。该研究建议,有必要在Kisii县建立农业部门的天气预报和早期预警系统,并促进造林项目以保护集水区。为了建立抵御气候冲击的弹性系统,还应探索引进耐高温粮食作物以及采用气候智能型农业(CSA)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessment of Climate Variability in Kisii Kenya and Its Implications on Food Security
Climate change and variability have been singled out as one of the modern challenges that affect economies of several countries leading to food scarcity and food insecurity in various parts of the world and represent a fundamental contemporary environmental shock. Kenya is no exception. This research was conducted in Kisii County, a perceived Kenyan national bread basket and investigated the trend in climate variability between the years 1983-2013. The objective of the study was to examine the precipitation and temperature trend in Kisii County. The research question was to find out whether there was any significant trend and pattern of rainfall and temperature as indicators of climate variability. The study examined climate variability for thirty one years (1983 to 2013). Data was obtained from Kenya Meteorological Department and their annual means were computed. Mann Kendall statistic test was applied to establish whether the observed trend of precipitation and temperature was significant. From the analysis, rainfall did not show any significant trend in Kisii County whilst temperature revealed a significantly upward trend over the years, at 95% confidence level. The study recommends a need to in-corporate weather prediction and early warning systems by the Ministry of Agriculture in Kisii County and also promote afforestation programmes to protect water catchments. To build resilient systems to climate shocks, introduction of high temperature tolerant food crops as well as adoption of climate smart agriculture (CSA) should also be explored.
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