艾略特波浪理论与分类的股票市场预测

IF 0.5 Q4 BUSINESS

International Journal of Business Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.4018/ijban.2021010101

Saeed Tabar, S. Sharma, David Volkman

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引用次数: 1

摘要

在过去的十年中，特别是在多次市场崩溃之后，股票市场预测领域引起了人们的极大关注。通过分析市场价格波动，我们可以获得对未来趋势的有价值的见解。本研究提出了一种基于模式分析和分类的预测新方法。在研究的第一部分，趋势分析算法，艾略特波浪理论，被用于将道琼斯工业平均指数，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克的价格模式分为三类:多头，空头和持有。标记模式后，使用决策树、naïve贝叶斯和支持向量机(SVM)等分类学习算法从模式中学习并对未来进行预测。该算法在2010年5月和2015年8月的市场崩盘中实现，结果表明，该算法通过在崩盘期间发出HOLD和SHORT信号来正确识别市场波动。

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Stock Market Prediction Using Elliot Wave Theory and Classification

The area of stock market prediction has attracted a great deal of attention during the past decade especially after multiple market crashes. By analyzing market price fluctuations, we can achieve valuable insight regarding future trends. This research proposes a novel method for prediction using pattern analysis and classification. For the first part of the research, a trend analysis algorithm, Elliot wave theory, is used to classify price patterns for DJIA, S&P500, and NASDAQ into three categories: LONG, SHORT, and HOLD. After labeling patterns, classification learning algorithms including decision tree, naïve Bayes, and support vector machine (SVM) are used to learn from the patterns and make a prediction for the future. The algorithm is implemented during the market crashes of May 2010 and August 2015, and the obtained results show that it correctly identifies the market volatility by issuing HOLD and SHORT signals during those crashes.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Business BUSINESS-

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal will serve and provide a forum for exchange of ideas among business executives and academicians concerned with global business and economic issues. With the rapid evolution of corporate business from international to global in recent years, general business has been one of the areas of greatest added complexity and concern for corporate managers. It is no longer sufficient for the corporate manager to limit his/her study simply to the domestic aspects of general business. Almost every single topic that can be studied in general business now has global dimensions that are equally important. As such, practitioners and academicians, each with a unique perspective on global business, must go beyond the presently limited sharing of information and ideas. The Journal will be an academic journal combining academic inquiry and informed business practices. It will publish empirical, analytical, review, and survey articles, as well as case studies related to all areas of global business and economics. A sentiment often expressed by practitioners is that academic research in general may not be addressing the most relevant questions in the real world. To bridge some gaps in our knowledge of the real world, the Journal is thereby willing to sponsor a field research (such as surveys, in-depth interviews, on-site studies, etc.). It is fair to say that the Journal will publish high-quality applied-research papers. Nevertheless, studies that test important theoretical works and shed additional light on the issue with some business implications will also be solicited.