东喀尔巴阡山脉前陆内部气候变化的年际波动

D. Kholiavchuk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对欧洲山区多世纪气候动力学的研究指出,全球气候模式中包含了主要的外部太阳和大气-海洋强迫(Camenisch et al., 2016)。仪器记录期间的气候变率模式被分解为几个不同的持续时间,反映在响应边界强迫的区域气候模式中(Deque et al., 2007;Birsan et al., 2014)。然而,在气候变化模型和预估中,适当地纳入内部气候变率仍然是一项复杂的任务(Maraun et al., 2015)。公认的趋势分析方法能够检测到欧洲的减少/增加阶段,这些阶段主要对热状态有重要意义。气候趋势内部短期波动的表征问题需要进一步探索和统一。以东喀尔巴阡山脉前陆为例,对这些时期的分析可以为响应当地气候变化特征的气候变化阶段的开始提供信息
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Inter-annual fluctuations in the internal climate variability of the Eastern Carpathians foreland
Studies of the multicentennial climate dynamics over the European mountainous regions point to the primary external solar and atmosphere-ocean forcing included in the global climate models (Camenisch et al., 2016). The climate variability model during the period of instrumental records is resolved into several different in duration periods reflected in the regional climate models in response to the boundary forcings (Deque et al., 2007; Birsan et al., 2014). Still, the appropriate inclusion of internal climate variability remains the complicated task in the climate change models and projections (Maraun et al., 2015).The acknowledged methods of trend analysis enabled to detect phases of decrease/increase in Europe that are  significant mostly for the thermal regime. The issue of representation of internal short-term fluctuations in the climate trends requires further exploration and unification. The analysis of such periods on the example of the forelands of Eastern Carpathians may provide information for the onset of the climate change phases in response to local features of climate transformation
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