Green bond market boom: did environmental, social and governance criteria play a role in reducing health-related uncertainty?

Recent years have been characterized by considerable growth of the green bond market in Europe, particularly in the domain of social bond issuance. Considering the recent pandemic, it is also a stylized fact that this growth is positively correlated with the concept of health-related uncertainty, as the green bond market aims to acquire financing in order to allow the development of projects that comply with the so-called environmental (E), social (S) and governance (G) criteria. This study then applies a dynamic spatial econometric analysis and several robustness checks to assess the extent to which each E, S and G criterion contributes to the societal dynamics of health-related uncertainty. The analysis takes advantage of available data on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 to measure health-related uncertainty at the municipal level, so that a higher (lower) number of confirmed cases constitutes a proxy for a greater (smaller) degree of uncertainty, respectively. To reinforce the need to evaluate impacts in a context characterized by health-related uncertainty, the time span covers the first wave of COVID-19, which is the period when uncertainty reached its highest peak. Additionally, the geographical scope is mainland Portugal since this country has become a breeding ground for startups and new ideas, being currently one of the world leaders in hosting businesses that reached Unicorn status. The main result of this research is that only the social dimension has a significant, positive and permanent impact on health-related uncertainty. Therefore, this study empirically confirms that the European green bond market has been and can be further leveraged by the need to finance projects with a social scope.