土耳其的财政状况有多脆弱?

IF 5.5 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Green Finance Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.3934/gf.2021016
Cansın Kemal Can
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究通过计算债务稳定基本平衡水平来衡量土耳其的财政脆弱性程度,并评估这一变量与1978-2019年期间实际基本平衡水平的对比。基于这种比较,我们使用Stoian(2012)中描述的方法建立了财政脆弱性指数。此外,还进行了Toda-Yamamoto因果检验来检测这两个变量之间的因果关系方向。基于指数的分析显示,土耳其的财政表现在估计期间基本上是令人满意的。此外,Toda-Yamamoto因果检验结果暗示了从所需基本平衡到实际基本平衡的单向因果关系,表明政府利用基本平衡来稳定财政失衡,这是政府为恢复财政可持续性所做的积极努力。然而,尽管实施了纠正性财政行动以保持稳定,该指数值近年来仍在稳步上升,表明财政脆弱性风险日益增加。包括削减开支、全面税制改革、对公共开支进行适当审查等在内的反向财政调整,都是政府可以采取的重要政策选择,以改变财政脆弱性指数目前的不利趋势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How vulnerable is the fiscal posture in Turkey?
This study gauges the degree of fiscal vulnerability in Turkey by calculating the debt stabilising primary balance level and evaluates how this variable measures up against the actual primary balance levels for the 1978–2019 period. Based on this comparison, we build up a fiscal fragility index using the methodology described in Stoian (2012). In addition, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test is carried out to detect the direction of causality among these two variables. The index-based analysis reveals that the fiscal performance of Turkey was chiefly satisfactory for the estimation period. Also, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test results imply a unidirectional causality from the required primary balance to real primary balance, suggesting that the government uses the primary balance to stabilise fiscal imbalances, which is an affirmative effort by the government to restore fiscal sustainability. Nevertheless, notwithstanding the implementation of corrective fiscal actions to preserve stability, the index value is steadily moving up in recent years, indicating a mounting fiscal vulnerability risk. Back-loading fiscal adjustments involving spending cuts, full-fledged tax reform, proper scrutiny of public expenses, etc., are among the prominent policy options available to the government to alter the ongoing unfavourable trend in the fiscal vulnerability index.
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来源期刊
Green Finance
Green Finance Multiple-
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
3.50%
发文量
14
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊介绍: Green Finance is an international, interdisciplinary Open Access journal dedicated to green finance, environmental, and sustainability research and practice. It offers a platform for publishing original contributions and technical reviews on green finance and related topics, following a rigorous peer-review process. Accepted article types include original research, reviews, editorials, letters, and conference reports.
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