金融市场混乱与投资者意识:隐含波动率偏差的案例

IF 3.2 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Hammad Siddiqi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

1987年的崩盘被认为是金融市场历史上最重要的事件之一,因为全球市场下跌的严重性和速度。在崩盘之后,期权市场发生了永久性的变化;全球期权市场开始出现隐含波动率偏差。在本文中,我们认为隐含波动率偏差的出现可以理解为由于投资者对股票价格过程及其对delta套期保值的影响的认识增加而产生的。delta套期保值旨在消除与标的资产价格变动相关的方向性风险。在崩盘之前,投资者并不知道“delta对冲的投资组合是有风险的”这一说法。也就是说,他们暗中相信“delta对冲的投资组合是无风险的”这个命题。金融危机导致“投资组合保险delta-对冲”严重失败。由此产生的发自内心的冲击让人们明白了一个教训:“delta对冲的投资组合是有风险的”,从而提高了投资者的意识。我们证明,突然意识到delta对冲投资组合是有风险的,足以产生隐含波动率偏差,相当于在欧洲看涨期权公式中用更高的利率代替无风险利率。由此可见,投资者意识(超越信息不对称)是影响金融市场行为的重要因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Financial market disruption and investor awareness: the case of implied volatility skew
The crash of 1987 is considered one of the most significant events in the history of financial markets due to the severity and swiftness of market declines worldwide. In the aftermath of the crash, a permanent change in options market occurred; implied volatility skew started appearing in options markets worldwide. In this article, we argue that the emergence of the implied volatility skew can be understood as arising from increased investor awareness about the stock price process and its implications for delta hedging. Delta-hedging aims to eliminate the directional risk associated with price movements in the underlying asset. Before the crash, investors were unaware of the proposition that "a delta-hedged portfolio is risky". That is, they implicitly believed in the proposition that "a delta-hedged portfolio is risk-free". The crash caused "portfolio insurance delta-hedges" to fail spectacularly. The resulting visceral shock drove home the lesson that "a delta-hedged portfolio is risky", thus, increasing investor awareness. We show that this sudden realization that a delta-hedged portfolio is risky is sufficient to generate the implied volatility skew and is equivalent to replacing the risk-free rate with a higher rate in the European call option formula. It follows that investor awareness (beyond asymmetric information) is an important consideration that matters for financial market behavior.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.30
自引率
1.90%
发文量
14
审稿时长
12 weeks
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