东非电价驱动因素的实证评估:卢旺达、乌干达、坦桑尼亚、布隆迪和肯尼亚的面板数据经验

IF 1.8 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS
AIMS Energy Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.3934/energy.2023001
Mburamatare Daniel, W. Gboney, Hakizimana Khan Jean de Dieu, Akumuntu Joseph, Fidèle Mutemberezi
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引用次数: 2

摘要

可持续电力供应在经济发展中起着关键作用。通过电价监管实现电力的成本回收、盈利能力和可负担性,已成为私营供应商与监管机构之间冲突的主题。因此,监管机构需要平衡所有利益相关者的利益。本研究的目的,是衡量在何种程度上,电力净消耗(EC),电力净发电量(EG),输电和配电损失(损失),国际平均原油价格(FP),消费者价格指数(CPI),工业增加值(IVA)可以影响平均电价(EP)在东非,特别是在卢旺达,乌干达,坦桑尼亚,布隆迪和肯尼亚。数据来自世界银行指标,涵盖2000年至2019年。本研究采用三阶段方法,包括面板单位根检验、面板协整检验和面板背景下变量长期协整关系的估计。我们采用了四种不同的面板单位根检验,包括ADF-Fisher卡方检验,Levin, Lin和Chu (LLC);p - fisher卡方,Im, Pesaran, Shin, (IPS)。结果表明,变量在“水平”处是非平稳的,在一阶差分处是平稳的,并与一阶积分,表示为I(1)。采用Pedroni、Kao和Johansen Fisher协整检验。本研究采用全修正普通最小二乘(FMOLS)和动态普通最小二乘(DOLS)来估计变量之间的长期关系。我们发现,EG、FP和CPI的增加增加了平均电价(EP);而loss、EC和IVA的增加会降低EP。因此,我们建议促进可再生能源的长期投资政策和有效的政策,以减少技术和商业损失。此外,这项研究表明,与补贴电价有关的适当政策将防止与低效率的过度用电有关的不利影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Empirical assessment of drivers of electricity prices in East Africa: Panel data experience of Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Kenya
Sustainable electricity supply plays a key role in economic development. Cost recovery, profitability and affordability of electricity through power tariff regulation, have become a subject of conflict between private providers and regulators. Consequently, regulators need to balance the interests of all stakeholders. The objective of this study, is to measure to which extent, Electricity Net Consumption (EC), Electricity Net Generation (EG), electricity transmission and distribution losses (Losses), International Average Crude oil prices (FP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industry Value Added (IVA) could influence the Average Electricity Prices (EP) in East Africa, especially in Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Kenya. The data are from World Bank Indicators and cover the period from 2000 to 2019. This study adopts a three-stage approach, consisting of panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and estimating the long run cointegration relationship of the variables in a panel context. We applied four different panel unit root tests including ADF-Fisher Chi-square, Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC); PP-Fisher Chi-square, and Im, Pesaran, and Shin, (IPS). The results reveal that the variables are non-stationary at "level", stationary at first-differences and integrated with order one denoted as I(1). The Pedroni, Kao and Johansen Fisher co-integration tests were performed. This study uses full modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) to estimate the long run relationship among the variables. We find that the increase in EG, FP, and CPI increase the Average Electricity Prices (EP); while the increase in Losses, EC, and IVA decreases EP. Therefore, we recommend the promotion of long-term investment policies in renewable sources and efficient policies to reduce technical and commercial losses. In addition, this study suggests that appropriate policies related to subsidized electricity prices would, however, prevent adverse effects related to inefficient over-consumption of electricity.
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来源期刊
AIMS Energy
AIMS Energy ENERGY & FUELS-
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
11.10%
发文量
34
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: AIMS Energy is an international Open Access journal devoted to publishing peer-reviewed, high quality, original papers in the field of Energy technology and science. We publish the following article types: original research articles, reviews, editorials, letters, and conference reports. AIMS Energy welcomes, but not limited to, the papers from the following topics: · Alternative energy · Bioenergy · Biofuel · Energy conversion · Energy conservation · Energy transformation · Future energy development · Green energy · Power harvesting · Renewable energy
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