Mburamatare Daniel, W. Gboney, Hakizimana Khan Jean de Dieu, Akumuntu Joseph, Fidèle Mutemberezi
{"title":"东非电价驱动因素的实证评估:卢旺达、乌干达、坦桑尼亚、布隆迪和肯尼亚的面板数据经验","authors":"Mburamatare Daniel, W. Gboney, Hakizimana Khan Jean de Dieu, Akumuntu Joseph, Fidèle Mutemberezi","doi":"10.3934/energy.2023001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Sustainable electricity supply plays a key role in economic development. Cost recovery, profitability and affordability of electricity through power tariff regulation, have become a subject of conflict between private providers and regulators. Consequently, regulators need to balance the interests of all stakeholders. The objective of this study, is to measure to which extent, Electricity Net Consumption (EC), Electricity Net Generation (EG), electricity transmission and distribution losses (Losses), International Average Crude oil prices (FP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industry Value Added (IVA) could influence the Average Electricity Prices (EP) in East Africa, especially in Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Kenya. The data are from World Bank Indicators and cover the period from 2000 to 2019. This study adopts a three-stage approach, consisting of panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and estimating the long run cointegration relationship of the variables in a panel context. We applied four different panel unit root tests including ADF-Fisher Chi-square, Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC); PP-Fisher Chi-square, and Im, Pesaran, and Shin, (IPS). The results reveal that the variables are non-stationary at \"level\", stationary at first-differences and integrated with order one denoted as I(1). The Pedroni, Kao and Johansen Fisher co-integration tests were performed. This study uses full modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) to estimate the long run relationship among the variables. We find that the increase in EG, FP, and CPI increase the Average Electricity Prices (EP); while the increase in Losses, EC, and IVA decreases EP. Therefore, we recommend the promotion of long-term investment policies in renewable sources and efficient policies to reduce technical and commercial losses. In addition, this study suggests that appropriate policies related to subsidized electricity prices would, however, prevent adverse effects related to inefficient over-consumption of electricity.","PeriodicalId":45696,"journal":{"name":"AIMS Energy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Empirical assessment of drivers of electricity prices in East Africa: Panel data experience of Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Kenya\",\"authors\":\"Mburamatare Daniel, W. Gboney, Hakizimana Khan Jean de Dieu, Akumuntu Joseph, Fidèle Mutemberezi\",\"doi\":\"10.3934/energy.2023001\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Sustainable electricity supply plays a key role in economic development. Cost recovery, profitability and affordability of electricity through power tariff regulation, have become a subject of conflict between private providers and regulators. Consequently, regulators need to balance the interests of all stakeholders. The objective of this study, is to measure to which extent, Electricity Net Consumption (EC), Electricity Net Generation (EG), electricity transmission and distribution losses (Losses), International Average Crude oil prices (FP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industry Value Added (IVA) could influence the Average Electricity Prices (EP) in East Africa, especially in Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Kenya. The data are from World Bank Indicators and cover the period from 2000 to 2019. This study adopts a three-stage approach, consisting of panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and estimating the long run cointegration relationship of the variables in a panel context. We applied four different panel unit root tests including ADF-Fisher Chi-square, Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC); PP-Fisher Chi-square, and Im, Pesaran, and Shin, (IPS). The results reveal that the variables are non-stationary at \\\"level\\\", stationary at first-differences and integrated with order one denoted as I(1). The Pedroni, Kao and Johansen Fisher co-integration tests were performed. This study uses full modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) to estimate the long run relationship among the variables. We find that the increase in EG, FP, and CPI increase the Average Electricity Prices (EP); while the increase in Losses, EC, and IVA decreases EP. Therefore, we recommend the promotion of long-term investment policies in renewable sources and efficient policies to reduce technical and commercial losses. In addition, this study suggests that appropriate policies related to subsidized electricity prices would, however, prevent adverse effects related to inefficient over-consumption of electricity.\",\"PeriodicalId\":45696,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"AIMS Energy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"AIMS Energy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3934/energy.2023001\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"AIMS Energy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3934/energy.2023001","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Empirical assessment of drivers of electricity prices in East Africa: Panel data experience of Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Kenya
Sustainable electricity supply plays a key role in economic development. Cost recovery, profitability and affordability of electricity through power tariff regulation, have become a subject of conflict between private providers and regulators. Consequently, regulators need to balance the interests of all stakeholders. The objective of this study, is to measure to which extent, Electricity Net Consumption (EC), Electricity Net Generation (EG), electricity transmission and distribution losses (Losses), International Average Crude oil prices (FP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industry Value Added (IVA) could influence the Average Electricity Prices (EP) in East Africa, especially in Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Kenya. The data are from World Bank Indicators and cover the period from 2000 to 2019. This study adopts a three-stage approach, consisting of panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and estimating the long run cointegration relationship of the variables in a panel context. We applied four different panel unit root tests including ADF-Fisher Chi-square, Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC); PP-Fisher Chi-square, and Im, Pesaran, and Shin, (IPS). The results reveal that the variables are non-stationary at "level", stationary at first-differences and integrated with order one denoted as I(1). The Pedroni, Kao and Johansen Fisher co-integration tests were performed. This study uses full modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) to estimate the long run relationship among the variables. We find that the increase in EG, FP, and CPI increase the Average Electricity Prices (EP); while the increase in Losses, EC, and IVA decreases EP. Therefore, we recommend the promotion of long-term investment policies in renewable sources and efficient policies to reduce technical and commercial losses. In addition, this study suggests that appropriate policies related to subsidized electricity prices would, however, prevent adverse effects related to inefficient over-consumption of electricity.
期刊介绍:
AIMS Energy is an international Open Access journal devoted to publishing peer-reviewed, high quality, original papers in the field of Energy technology and science. We publish the following article types: original research articles, reviews, editorials, letters, and conference reports. AIMS Energy welcomes, but not limited to, the papers from the following topics: · Alternative energy · Bioenergy · Biofuel · Energy conversion · Energy conservation · Energy transformation · Future energy development · Green energy · Power harvesting · Renewable energy