技术经济因素对巴基斯坦净零碳排放的作用

IF 1.8 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS
AIMS Energy Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.3934/energy.2023013
Muhammad Amir Raza, M. M. Aman, A. G. Abro, Muhammad Shahid, D. Ara, Tufail Ahmed Waseer, M. Tunio, N. A. Tunio, S. Soomro, T. Jumani
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引用次数: 2

摘要

巴基斯坦政府在国家替代能源和可再生能源政策中确立了清洁能源转型目标。该政策的目标是到2030年将绿色能源占总能源结构的比例提高到30%。在这方面,本研究的目的是制定一项脱碳计划,通过纳入ARE政策目标,在2021年至2040年期间部署绿色能源系统,实现净零排放。低排放分析平台(LEAP®)软件用于寻找巴基斯坦国内生产总值、国内人口、能源需求、可再生能源生产和二氧化碳排放之间的单向因果关系。结果表明,到2040年,巴基斯坦拥有2.421亿人口,GDP增长率为5.8%,564.16太瓦时的能源产量足以满足480.10太瓦时的能源需求,二氧化碳排放量为2219万吨。绿色能源生产份额为535.07太瓦时,可充分利用,满足国家能源需求,到2040年将实现几乎零排放。2020年,天然气燃烧产生的二氧化碳排放量为2064万吨,到2040年减少到325万吨。燃烧炉油产生的二氧化碳排放量也从2020年的419万吨减少到2040年的206万吨。2020年燃煤产生的二氧化碳排放量为2485万吨,到2040年减少到1688万吨。能源需求与该国的人口和GDP直接相关,而可再生能源利用与碳排放成反比。巴基斯坦碳排放量的下降趋势将有助于到本世纪中叶实现净零排放目标。这项技术将为建设一个清洁、绿色和可持续的环境带来繁荣。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The role of techno-economic factors for net zero carbon emissions in Pakistan
The Government of Pakistan has established clean energy transition goals in the national Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy. The goal of this policy is to increase the 30% capacity of green energy in total energy mix by 2030. In this regard, the aim of this study is to develop a de-carbonization plan for achieving net zero emissions through the deployment of a green energy system for the period 2021 to 2040 by incorporating the ARE policy targets. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP®) software is used for finding the unidirectional causality among gross domestic product, population within the country, energy demand, renewable energy production and CO2 emissions for Pakistan. The results revealed that energy production of 564.16 TWh is enough to meet the energy demand of 480.10 TWh with CO2 emissions of 22.19 million metric tons, having a population of 242.1 million people and GDP growth rate of 5.8%, in the year 2040 in Pakistan. The share of green energy production is 535.07 TWh, which can be utilized fully for meeting energy demand in the country, and almost zero emissions will produce till 2040. CO2 emissions produced by burning natural gas were 20.64 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 3.25 million metric tons in 2040. CO2 emissions produced by burning furnace oil are also reduced from 4.19 million metric tons in 2020 to 2.06 million metric tons in 2040. CO2 emissions produced by burning coal were 24.85 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 16.88 million metric tons in 2040. Energy demand is directly related to the population and GDP of the country, while renewable utilization is inversely proportional to carbon emissions. The declining trend of carbon emissions in Pakistan would help to achieve net zero emissions targets by mid-century. This technique would bring prosperity in the development of a clean, green and sustainable environment.
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来源期刊
AIMS Energy
AIMS Energy ENERGY & FUELS-
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
11.10%
发文量
34
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: AIMS Energy is an international Open Access journal devoted to publishing peer-reviewed, high quality, original papers in the field of Energy technology and science. We publish the following article types: original research articles, reviews, editorials, letters, and conference reports. AIMS Energy welcomes, but not limited to, the papers from the following topics: · Alternative energy · Bioenergy · Biofuel · Energy conversion · Energy conservation · Energy transformation · Future energy development · Green energy · Power harvesting · Renewable energy
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