用带有跳跃的维纳过程来模拟新流行病病例的对数

IF 1.1 Q4 BIOPHYSICS

AIMS Biophysics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.3934/biophy.2022023

M. Lefebvre

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引用次数: 1

摘要

假定流行病的每日新病例数演变为具有指数分布的泊松跳变的维纳过程的指数。模型参数可以用矩量法估计。在对加拿大quacembec省COVID-19大流行的应用中，所提出的模型被证明是可以接受的。给出了每日新增病例数的给定增加是由于该过程连续部分的正常变化或该过程的跳跃所引起的概率的一般公式。根据这些公式，计算观察到新一波感染可能开始的概率，并将其应用于COVID-19大流行。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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A Wiener process with jumps to model the logarithm of new epidemic cases

The number of daily new cases of an epidemic is assumed to evolve as the exponential of a Wiener process with Poissonian jumps that are exponentially distributed. The model parameters can be estimated by using the method of moments. In an application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the province of Québec, Canada, the proposed model is shown to be acceptable. General formulas for the probability that a given increase in the number of daily new cases is due to the normal variations of the continuous part of the process or rather to a jump of this process are given. Based on these formulas, the probability of observing the likely start of a new wave of infections is calculated for the application to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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来源期刊

AIMS Biophysics BIOPHYSICS-

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

20.00%

发文量

审稿时长

8 weeks

期刊介绍： AIMS Biophysics is an international Open Access journal devoted to publishing peer-reviewed, high quality, original papers in the field of biophysics. We publish the following article types: original research articles, reviews, editorials, letters, and conference reports. AIMS Biophysics welcomes, but not limited to, the papers from the following topics: · Structural biology · Biophysical technology · Bioenergetics · Membrane biophysics · Cellular Biophysics · Electrophysiology · Neuro-Biophysics · Biomechanics · Systems biology